Mesoscale Discussion 834

Issued

Jun 6, 2016, 3:42 PM EDT (19:42 UTC)

Expired

Jun 6, 2016, 5:45 PM EDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

Counties Duval County, FL, Flagler County, FL, Nassau County, FL, Saint Johns County, FL, Volusia County, FL, Camden County, GA, Glynn County, GA, McIntosh County, GA

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

556 
ACUS11 KWNS 061943
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061942 
FLZ000-GAZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0834
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN FL AND SERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 061942Z - 062145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS MAY PRODUCE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES. THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE OUTER/NERN FRINGES OF THE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE ACCOMPANYING TROPICAL STORM COLIN IS SPREADING
NEWD ACROSS NERN FL...WITH AREAS OF MORE SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION
FARTHER S TOWARD VOLUSIA COUNTY. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
SPREADING NWD/NEWD DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AMIDST HIGH THETA-E IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER /PARTLY SUPPORTED BY SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER-MIDDLE 70S/. WITH THE JAX VWP SAMPLING 30-40-KT SLYS IN THE
1-3-KM-AGL LAYER...AND BACKED SFC WINDS N OF A W/E BOUNDARY ANALYZED
ACROSS FAR NERN FL...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR
BRIEF TORNADOES. LINE-EMBEDDED MESOVORTICES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
DETECTED WITH THE CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHING THE JACKSONVILLE AREA
BASED ON KJAX RADAR DATA. THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR RISK SHOULD
BE LIMITED AS CONVECTION SPREADS TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   28928086 28878119 29818179 30818196 31648149 31678103
            30748117 29728108 28928086

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.