Mesoscale Discussion 828

Issued

Jun 6, 2016, 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC)

Expired

Jun 6, 2016, 12:30 PM EDT

In force

90 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

Counties Alachua County, FL, Bradford County, FL, Lake County, FL, Marion County, FL, Putnam County, FL, Sumter County, FL

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 147 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

618 
ACUS11 KWNS 061501
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061500 
FLZ000-061630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0828
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 AM CDT MON JUN 06 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 061500Z - 061630Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN THE OUTER CYCLONIC ENVELOPE OF
TROPICAL STORM COLIN WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING NEWD THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW ISSUANCE IS
PRESENTLY UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE LATER IN THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE BANDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM COLIN ARE ADVANCING NEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL. CG
LIGHTNING AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
MAINTAINING AT LEAST MODEST DEPTH/INTENSITY FROM GILCHRIST COUNTY
SWD TO PASCO COUNTY. THE NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH A W/E-ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING
FROM VOLUSIA COUNTY TO MARION COUNTY. BAROCLINICITY RELATED TO THIS
BOUNDARY MAY LOCALLY ENHANCE THE SVR RISK IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. 30-40 KT OF 0-1-KM
BULK SHEAR BASED ON AREA VWP DATA. LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION AS IT
SPREADS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN FL THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE ADDITIONAL DIABATIC SFC-LAYER
HEATING BEFORE A MORE ROBUST SVR RISK MAY ENSUE LATER IN THE DAY.

..COHEN/WEISS.. 06/06/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   28468240 29248249 29748263 30028239 29918145 28768148
            28468240

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.