Mesoscale Discussion 807

Issued

Jun 3, 2016, 1:28 PM CDT (18:28 UTC)

Expired

Jun 3, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT

In force

3 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

5%

The Aberdeen radar (KABR), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

459 
ACUS11 KWNS 031829
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031828 
SDZ000-NDZ000-032100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0807
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT FRI JUN 03 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031828Z - 032100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM N-CNTRL ND SEWD THROUGH ERN SD. ISOLATED
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND COULD OCCUR...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...AREAS OF INSOLATION BETWEEN THE WRN EDGE OF A
WIDESPREAD CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING FROM NERN ND TO MUCH OF MN...AND
THE CORE OF MORE CONTINENTAL AIR SUBJECTED TO DOWNSLOPE
WARMING/DRYING...IS YIELDING MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITHIN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM N-CNTRL ND SEWD THROUGH ERN SD. WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING
IN THE 50S IN THIS CORRIDOR...TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
LOWER/MIDDLE 70S IN MANY AREAS ARE SUPPORTING EROSION OF MLCINH
BENEATH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT -- E.G. AROUND -15C AT H5. AS
SUCH...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF
CONVECTION ALREADY EVOLVING FROM S-CNTRL ND TO N-CNTRL SD.

RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING-LEVEL HEIGHTS COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT
ANVIL-LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT SUSTAINED TSTMS WITH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. LOCALLY STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR WIND
GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTION INTERCEPTS POCKETS OF
DEEPER AMBIENT VERTICAL MIXING. LOW-LEVEL STORM-SCALE CIRCULATIONS
COULD OCCUR OWING TO THE OVERLAP OF AMBIENT NEAR-SFC VERTICAL
VORTICITY WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY. HOWEVER...WITH A MORE
PROMINENT SFC BOUNDARY AND RELATED VORTICITY DISPLACED TO THE E OF
GREATER INSOLATION...THE OVERALL TORNADO RISK SHOULD BE LIMITED.
WEAK EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
OVERALL...KEEPING THE SVR RISK QUITE ISOLATED.

..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/03/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   43979663 43529744 43929852 45350005 47110106 48250146
            48810066 48579925 46779767 45089666 43979663

Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.