Mesoscale Discussion 793

Issued

May 30, 2016, 5:14 PM CDT (22:14 UTC)

Expired

May 30, 2016, 6:45 PM CDT

In force

91 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

20%

The Omaha radar (KOAX), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:14 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

566 
ACUS11 KWNS 302214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302214 
IAZ000-MNZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-302345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0793
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NEB...WRN/CNTRL IA...SRN MN...NWRN
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 302214Z - 302345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WATCH
ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ERN NEB AND WRN IA...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL RECENTLY NOTED NEAR
OMAHA AND NORTH OF DES MOINES. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ON THE NRN
FRINGE OF A CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED VORT MAX MOVING INTO SWRN MO...IN
AN AREA THAT HEATED UP WELL INTO THE 80S F PRIOR TO INITIATION.
WHILE WIND SPEEDS ARE RATHER WEAK IN THE LOWER-MID TROPOSPHERE /AS
OBSERVED IN THE OAX AND DMX VWP/...MODEST VEERING FROM SLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW TO WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND
25-30 KTS...WHICH IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS OR PERHAPS
A TRANSIENT SUPERCELL. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE
STRONGEST CORES...WHILE ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. 

THE PRESENCE OF QUICKLY EMERGING COLD POOLS FROM EXISTING STORMS
SUGGESTS THAT STORM LONGEVITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LIMITED...THOUGH
CONTINUED REDEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WITH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY EXPANDING INTO AREAS OF NRN
IA AND SRN MN THAT HAVE NOT BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE THREAT...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

..DEAN/GUYER.. 05/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...GID...

LAT...LON   40029601 40489707 41229745 42589649 44069611 44339440
            43389298 41589263 40439449 40229507 40029601

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.