Alert archive / Nebraska / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 70

February 2, 20169 counties in Iowa; 5 counties in Kansas; 49 counties in Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 2, 2016, 3:39 AM CST for 9 counties in Iowa; 5 counties in Kansas; 49 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Feb 2, 2016, 3:39 AM CST (09:39 UTC)
Expired
Feb 2, 2016, 9:45 AM CST
In force
6 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 63 counties

Carroll County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Crawford County, IA, Harrison County, IA, Ida County, IA, Monona County, IA, Sac County, IA, Shelby County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Decatur County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Antelope County, NE, Boone County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Burt County, NE, Butler County, NE, Clay County, NE, Colfax County, NE, Cuming County, NE, Dakota County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Dodge County, NE, Douglas County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Frontier County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Hamilton County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Lancaster County, NE, Madison County, NE, Merrick County, NE, Nance County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Pierce County, NE, Platte County, NE, Polk County, NE, Red Willow County, NE, Saline County, NE, Sarpy County, NE, Saunders County, NE, Seward County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Stanton County, NE, Thayer County, NE, Thurston County, NE, Valley County, NE, Washington County, NE, Wayne County, NE, Webster County, NE, Wheeler County, NE, York County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 00:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2016-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 00:00Z on 2016-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 94 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1367 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
141 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

161 
ACUS11 KWNS 020940
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020939 
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-KSZ000-021545-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0339 AM CST TUE FEB 02 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS THROUGH SWRN...CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND
EXTREME WRN IA

CONCERNING...BLIZZARD 

VALID 020939Z - 021545Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INITIALLY OVER NWRN KS AND SWRN NEB
WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN NEB AND EXTREME
WRN IA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
EVOLVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEB. SNOWFALL RATES OCCASIONALLY TO 1+
INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS.

DISCUSSION...SFC LOW OVER SCNTRL KS AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING WILL
DEEPEN AS IT DEVELOPS THROUGH ERN KS IN RESPONSE TO FORCING WITHIN
EXIT REGION OF A NEWD-ADVANCING 150 KT UPPER JET. THE INCREASING
GRADIENT BETWEEN DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND SFC HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS...WITH A 60+ KT ENELY
850 MB JET LIKELY OVER ERN NEB BY 12Z. MODEST COLD ADVECTION AND
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN SFC TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW
FREEZING IN MOST AREAS. SNOW BANDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER NEB WITH RATES INCREASING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN EVOLVING
DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE. THE
STRONG GRADIENT NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS FROM SWRN THROUGH ERN NEB AS SNOWFALL RATES
INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING.

..DIAL.. 02/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41989478 40159742 39379950 39690128 40840085 42189812
            42809539 41989478

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 2, 7:50 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Black Hawk, Boone, Bremer, Buena Vista, Butler and 37 more4 hr
Feb 2, 11:35 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Buena Vista, Cerro Gordo, Cherokee, Chickasaw and 20 more5 hr
Feb 1, 7:37 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Graham, Greeley, Lane and 11 more5 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.