Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 68
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 1, 2016, 7:37 PM CST for 17 counties in Kansas; 5 counties in Nebraska. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 1, 2016, 7:37 PM CST (01:37 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 2, 2016, 12:30 AM CST
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 22 counties
Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Norton County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Red Willow County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 94 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1548 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 59 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 222 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 310 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
663
ACUS11 KWNS 020138
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020137
KSZ000-NEZ000-020630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 PM CST MON FEB 01 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...SW NEB
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 020137Z - 020630Z
SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW KS
AND SW NEB THIS EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR
WITHIN A FEW LOCATIONS INSIDE THE MCD AREA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 997 MB LOW JUST TO THE
NORTHEAST OF RATON PASS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC
LOW OVER MUCH OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS ERN CO AND WRN KS IN AN AREAS OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS. AS PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS
THE MCD AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS GRADUALLY
COOL THE LOWER TO MID-LEVELS ACROSS NW KS AND SW NEB SUGGESTING THE
PREFERRED PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW. THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR 600 MB WITH AN ISOTHERMAL LAYER FAVORABLE FOR
AGGREGATION IN THE 800 TO 700 MB LAYER. THIS COMBINED WITH
INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
HEAVY SNOW. SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN THE HEAVIEST BANDS COULD REACH 1
INCH PER HOUR ESPECIALLY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
..BROYLES.. 02/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 38380038 38150155 38580195 40340173 40439946 39509919
38380038SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 3:39 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Decatur, Norton, Phillips, Rawlins, Smith | 6 hr |
| Feb 2, 7:50 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Burt, Butler, Colfax, Cuming, Dakota, Dixon and 10 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.