Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 7

January 8, 201613 parishes in Louisiana; 28 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 8, 2016, 6:31 PM CST for 13 parishes in Louisiana; 28 counties in Texas. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 8, 2016, 6:31 PM CST (00:31 UTC)
Expired
Jan 8, 2016, 8:30 PM CST
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties

Acadia Parish, LA, Allen Parish, LA, Beauregard Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, Calcasieu Parish, LA, Cameron Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Jefferson Davis Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Vermilion Parish, LA, Vernon Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Brazoria County, TX, Chambers County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Fort Bend County, TX, Galveston County, TX, Hardin County, TX, Harris County, TX, Houston County, TX, Jasper County, TX, Jefferson County, TX, Leon County, TX, Liberty County, TX, Madison County, TX, Montgomery County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Newton County, TX, Orange County, TX, Panola County, TX, Polk County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, San Jacinto County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Trinity County, TX, Tyler County, TX, Walker County, TX

The radar

The Lake Charles radar (KLCH), 66 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Lake Charles Mun, LA (KLCH), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 68 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-01-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1021 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Lake Charles Mun, LA at 00:00Z on 2016-01-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 201 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156175Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1021 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
665 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
201 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
240 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.1
Supercell composite
7.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

761 
ACUS11 KWNS 090031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090031 
LAZ000-TXZ000-090230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST FRI JAN 08 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX INTO SWRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1...

VALID 090031Z - 090230Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 1 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL WILL PERSIST WELL INTO
THE EVENING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

DISCUSSION...A RASH OF SEVERE HAIL STORMS HAS ERUPTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SERN TX IN A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY ABOVE A SLIGHTLY
MORE STABLE SFC LAYER...AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY COLD AIR ALOFT FOR THIS
LATITUDE...WHICH IS COMPENSATING FOR THE RELATIVELY LOWER MOISTURE
CONTENT WITH MAINLY UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS. SEVERAL OF
THESE STORMS ARE SUPERCELLS WITH AT LEAST MIDLEVEL ROTATION NOTED ON
RADAR.

WHILE THE HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD WITH
TIME...THERE MAY ALSO BE A LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT...ALTHOUGH
CONDITIONAL. THIS WOULD BE CLOSER TO COASTAL AREAS WHERE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OF 63-66 F EXIST. MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE NWD ADVANCEMENT OF
SAID DEWPOINTS...SUGGESTING ANY SFC-BASED ROTATION MAY BE RELEGATED
TO NEAR-COASTAL COUNTIES. SRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH COULD BE
UPGRADED TO TORNADO IF SFC OBSERVATIONS AND STORM TRENDS REQUIRE.

..JEWELL.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

LAT...LON   28759474 29139580 31359609 32219485 32639397 32579340
            32149312 31359279 30459233 29889215 29389230 28779315
            28689382 28759474

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 8, 9:52 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Beauregard, Calcasieu and 13 more83 min
Jan 8, 10:44 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAcadia, Allen, Ascension, Assumption, Avoyelles, Calcasieu and 19 more7 hr
Jan 9, 2:52 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAcadia, Ascension, Assumption, Cameron, East Baton Rouge, Evangeline and 15 more113 min
Jan 9, 5:28 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCJefferson, Lafourche, Plaquemines62 min
Jan 9, 1:17 AM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrazos, Burleson, Grimes, Hardin, Jasper, Liberty and 7 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Louisiana, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.