Mesoscale Discussion 668

Issued

May 21, 2016, 4:34 PM MDT (22:34 UTC)

Expired

May 21, 2016, 6:30 PM MDT

In force

116 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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409 
ACUS11 KWNS 212234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212234 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0668
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0534 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 187...

VALID 212234Z - 220030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 187 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT IS LIKELY INCREASING ACROSS WESTERN KS AND
FAR EASTERN CO...GIVEN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.

DISCUSSION...OBJECTIVE AND MESOSCALE ANALYSES INDICATED A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST CO /WELD COUNTY/ TO NORTHWEST KS
/SHERMAN COUNTY...JUST WEST OF GLD/...AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO
FINNEY AND SEWARD COUNTIES...JUST WEST OF GCK AND JUST EAST OF
LBL...RESPECTIVELY.  THE ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY AND WEST OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
1500-3000 J/KG.  MEANWHILE...VWP AT GLD INDICATED SOME BACKING AND
STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL...WITH SPEEDS UP
TO 40 KT.  THIS CHANGE IN THE WINDS HAS RESULTED IN STRENGTHENING OF
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /SURFACE TO 1-KM SHEAR 25-30 KT/ AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 35-40 KT.  IN ADDITION...0-1-KM SRH IS NEAR 300 M2/S2.
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WEST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY /PRIMARILY OVER
EASTERN CO AND FAR WESTERN KS AND TRACK TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO
THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT.

THE ENVIRONMENT TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS STABLE
AND LESS CONDUCIVE TO MAINTAIN STORM INTENSITY AND ORGANIZATION FOR
ANY STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THIS REGIME.

..PETERS.. 05/21/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON   40330149 39400017 37030010 36970302 37520304 37710280
            38270277 38320342 38480339 38580308 39530316 39560283
            40390272 40330149

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.