Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 665
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 21, 2016, 2:50 PM CDT for 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 85 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 21, 2016, 2:50 PM CDT (19:50 UTC)
- Expired
- May 21, 2016, 4:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 85 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Brewster County, TX, Loving County, TX, Presidio County, TX, Reeves County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 208 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 208 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 627 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -253 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1125 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -68 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -35 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
305
ACUS11 KWNS 211950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211950
TXZ000-212115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0250 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211950Z - 212115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR AS
A FEW STORMS FORM OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF FAR WEST TX. THE SPATIAL
EXTENT OF THE RISK RENDERS UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER A WW ISSUANCE WILL
BE NECESSARY.
DISCUSSION...TOWERING CU APPEARING TO BE GORING INTO A COUPLE OF
INCIPIENT CBS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER JEFF DAVIS COUNTY.
WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION...THE
AIR MASS IS LIKELY MODERATELY UNSTABLE. MODEST LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLIES BENEATH MODERATE MID/UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY
FOSTER A SUPERCELL FORMING BY ABOUT 22Z. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. PRESENCE OF DOWNSTREAM
MLCIN SUGGEST THE SEVERE RISK MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
..GRAMS/HART.. 05/21/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
LAT...LON 31080405 31930372 31940330 31250299 29980296 29390330
29310391 29600433 30270428 31080405SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 11:35 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Brazoria, Brazos, Burleson, Chambers, Colorado and 10 more | 85 min |
| May 21, 2:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hansford and 9 more | 95 min |
| May 21, 2:43 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Carson, Castro, Cochran, Dallam and 18 more | 7 hr |
| May 21, 6:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Bailey, Carson, Castro, Cochran, Dallam and 18 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.