Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 65
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 28, 2016, 8:53 AM EST for Broward County, Miami-Dade County, Monroe County, Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 28, 2016, 8:53 AM EST (13:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 28, 2016, 11:00 AM EST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Broward County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL
The radar
The Miami radar (KAMX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Key West, FL (KEYW), launched 12:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1048 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 696 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 208 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 167 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.4
- Supercell composite
- 7.8
The text
As transmitted.
305
ACUS11 KWNS 281354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281353
FLZ000-281600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281353Z - 281600Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AND POTENTIALLY
PARTS OF THE FL KEYS THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR.
DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR BAND OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
A STEADY GENERAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION ACROSS FAR SOUTH FL
AND MAINLY THE LOWER KEYS THROUGH THE MID/LATE MORNING HOURS...WITH
PART OF THIS CONVECTION INTERACTING WITH A WEAK/NORTHWARD-SHIFTING
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND UPDRAFT INTENSITY HAS NOT BEEN
PARTICULARLY ROBUST AS EVIDENCED BY A RELATIVE LACK OF LIGHTNING.
NONETHELESS...ADEQUATE MOISTURE/LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY IN THE PRESENCE
OF MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH AS PER THE 12Z MIAMI OBSERVED
SOUNDING WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LINE-EMBEDDED
BOWS/MESOVORTICES. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO
COULD OCCUR AS STORMS CONTINUE TO SPREAD TOWARD/ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA.
..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/28/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 24898222 25218143 25678104 26378051 26338003 25218022
24668087 24528204 24898222SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 6:22 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Miami-Dade, Monroe | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.