Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 64
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 28, 2016, 6:22 AM EST for Miami-Dade County, Monroe County, Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 28, 2016, 6:22 AM EST (11:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 28, 2016, 8:45 AM EST
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL
The radar
The Key West radar (KBYX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:21 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Key West, FL (KEYW), launched 00:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1029 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -14 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 737 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 108 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 114 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.7
- Supercell composite
- 3.1
The text
As transmitted.
134
ACUS11 KWNS 281123
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281122
FLZ000-281345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0522 AM CST THU JAN 28 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL/FL KEYS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 281122Z - 281345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS MAY GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA AND/OR MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS PARTS OF
THE KEYS THROUGH THE EARLY/MID-MORNING HOURS. SOME RISK EXISTS FOR
WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO INLAND.
DISCUSSION...AS OF 615 AM EST/1115Z...A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED
CLUSTER OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
COLLIER COUNTY/MAINLAND MONROE AND THE LOWER KEYS...WITH A FEW
LINE-PRECEDING SHOWERS ALSO NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN MAINLAND MONROE
AND NEAR KEY WEST. AS A BYPRODUCT OF CONVECTION LAST EVENING...AN
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ARCS ACROSS THE KEYS/NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA. RELATED TO THE INFLUENCE OF THIS BOUNDARY/PRIOR
CONVECTION...SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA
ARE AROUND 2-4 DEG F COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WHILE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEARS SLIGHTLY WEAKER...PARTICULARLY AT MIAMI AS
PER LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA. THAT SAID...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/SRH SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS IN TANDEM WITH SOME
MODIFICATION/NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THIS EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THIS COULD
BETTER SUPPORT SUSTAINED BOWING SEGMENTS AND AT LEAST
TRANSIENT/EMBEDDED UPDRAFT ROTATION AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. SOME
RISK EXISTS FOR WATERSPOUTS AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO
INLAND...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR/IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/28/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 25368192 25868158 26218088 26068003 25178012 24468115
24398232 24918278 25368192SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 8:53 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broward, Miami-Dade, Monroe | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.