Mesoscale Discussion 63

Issued

Jan 27, 2016, 7:21 AM EST (12:21 UTC)

Expired

Jan 27, 2016, 9:45 AM EST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

40%

Counties Broward County, FL, Indian River County, FL, Martin County, FL, Miami-Dade County, FL, Monroe County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL

The Miami radar (KAMX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

991 
ACUS11 KWNS 271222
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271221 
FLZ000-271445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0621 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN/EASTERN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 271221Z - 271445Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A
TORNADO WILL SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT
INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/EASTERN FL PENINSULA.
DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

DISCUSSION...EARLIER OFFSHORE STORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND OVER THE PAST
60-90 MINUTES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST FL PENINSULA INTO SOUTHERN
COLLIER COUNTY AND NORTHERN MAINLAND MONROE. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN
UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LIGHTNING...A REINTENSIFICATION TREND HAS OCCURRED
AS THESE STORMS HAVE MOVED INLAND WITH MULTIPLE INSTANCES OF
TRANSIENT/MODEST LOW-LEVEL ROTATION...WITH A TRANSITIONAL
HIGH-PRECIP SUPERCELL/BOW-TYPE MODE AS OF 7 AM EST/12Z. 

STEADY LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTINUES TO OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH UPPER 60S F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE/VERO BEACH VICINITIES
AS OF 12Z. IN TANDEM WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR/SRH WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL PENINSULA IN VICINITY OF A SUBTLE WARM
FRONT. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH 350 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH RECENTLY NOTED IN THE
MELBOURNE WSR-88D VWP. WSR-88D VWP DATA AND THE 12Z MIAMI OBSERVED
SOUNDING SUGGEST APPROXIMATELY 175-250 M2/S2 OF O-1 KM SRH ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST PENINSULA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF AROUND 600 J/KG
MLCAPE. THE OVERALL SCENARIO WILL SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUSTAINED BOWS AND EMBEDDED/TRANSIENT CIRCULATIONS CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO AS STORMS SPREAD
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL PENINSULA
THROUGH EARLY/MID-MORNING.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   25598137 26228086 27908080 27557998 25398019 25158102
            25598137

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.