Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 62
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 27, 2016, 4:36 AM EST for 4 counties in Florida. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 27, 2016, 4:36 AM EST (09:36 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 27, 2016, 6:30 AM EST
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Broward County, FL, Collier County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Monroe County, FL
The radar
The Miami radar (KAMX), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:37 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Miami, FL (KMFL), launched 00:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 106 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 21 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -74 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 804 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 72 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 124 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
950
ACUS11 KWNS 270937
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 270936
FLZ000-271130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 270936Z - 271130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SOME STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AROUND 30-50 MILES OFF THE PENINSULA...CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST OF FAR SOUTHWEST FL IN VICINITY OF
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AS OF 415 AM EST/0915Z. THESE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT DELINEATES A
MORE MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIR MASS WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KEY WEST AND
MIAMI...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY ARE MAXIMIZED
IN THIS NEAR-COASTAL PART OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AS
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. EVEN WITH THESE
RECENT TRENDS...GIVEN CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING INLAND...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AMID A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR
WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...
LAT...LON 26538203 26868130 26528072 26158039 25338060 24988091
24628197 25498185 25688170 26538203SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 7:21 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Broward, Indian River, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Palm Beach and 1 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.