Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 604
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 11, 2016, 2:32 PM CDT for 27 counties in Texas. It was in force for 88 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 11, 2016, 2:32 PM CDT (19:32 UTC)
- Expired
- May 11, 2016, 4:00 PM CDT
- In force
- 88 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 60%
All 27 counties
Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coke County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Denton County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Erath County, TX, Fisher County, TX, Hood County, TX, Jack County, TX, Johnson County, TX, Jones County, TX, Mitchell County, TX, Nolan County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Runnels County, TX, Scurry County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Somervell County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 22 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -658 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2066 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -33 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 210 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
162
ACUS11 KWNS 111933
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111932
TXZ000-112100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0604
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 111932Z - 112100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY INITIATE ACROSS THE MCD AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
N-CNTRL TX...AIRMASS RECOVERY IS WELL UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MCD
AREA...WITH PLENTIFUL DIURNAL HEATING ALLOWING MLCAPE VALUES TO
INCREASE INTO THE 2000-3500 J/KG RANGE PER 19Z RAP MESOANALYSIS.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRYLINE
EXTENDING ABOUT 40 SE LUB TO 30 E MRF...AND ALONG A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EWD FROM THE DRYLINE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN N TX. RECENT
HRRR-PARALLEL RUNS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY PRESENT ACROSS THE
MCD AREA COMBINED WITH A VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT AND
SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY
POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY DEVELOP EWD
ACROSS PARTS OF N/CNTRL TX THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
..GLEASON/HART.. 05/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32240125 33080098 33079972 33259882 33669793 33459695
32379692 31369967 31880085 32240125SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 9:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 61 more | 62 min |
| May 11, 3:16 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Dallam, Hansford, Hartley, Hutchinson, Moore, Oldham and 2 more | 119 min |
| May 11, 4:29 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coleman, Comanche, Denton, Eastland and 20 more | 7 hr |
| May 11, 6:53 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Armstrong, Carson, Collingsworth, Donley, Gray, Hartley and 7 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.