Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 554

May 7, 2016Clark County, Indiana; 16 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2016, 10:35 PM EDT for Clark County, Indiana; 16 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2016, 10:35 PM EDT (02:35 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2016, 11:30 PM EDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Clark County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

The radar

The Louisville radar (KLVX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Cncnati-Daytn, OH (KILN), launched 00:00Z, 2.6 hours before the alert went out and 188 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 79 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -71 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1431 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 88 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 125 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

235 
ACUS11 KWNS 080235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080235 
KYZ000-INZ000-080330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0554
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0935 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147...

VALID 080235Z - 080330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 147
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND THREAT WITH SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COMPLEX IS ON
THE WANE...AND WW 147 MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE ITS ORIGINALLY
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION.

DISCUSSION...INCREASED CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OUT AHEAD OF THE
NORTHERN KENTUCKY COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS LED TO LESSENED INTENSITY OF
THE COMPLEX AND AN ATTENDANT DECREASE OF THE SEVERE THREAT. 
ADDITIONALLY...MUCH OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EXIT THE
WW AREA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  FURTHERMORE...NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER COOLING HAS LED TO A WEAKENING OF THE INSTABILITY THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN PLACE.  EACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS POINT TO A
DECREASING SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 147...AND THIS WATCH MAY BE
CANCELLED BEFORE ITS ORIGINALLY SCHEDULED 0600Z EXPIRATION.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

LAT...LON   37368434 37488482 37758539 37948564 38268579 38508575
            38588563 38588539 38488502 38238453 38068430 37818416
            37618415 37518417 37368434

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 8:43 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark, Crawford, Daviess, Dubois, Floyd, Gibson and 13 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.