Alert archive / Kentucky / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 552

May 7, 201611 counties in Illinois; 19 counties in Indiana; 47 counties in Kentucky

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 7, 2016, 7:43 PM CDT for 11 counties in Illinois; 19 counties in Indiana; 47 counties in Kentucky. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 7, 2016, 7:43 PM CDT (00:43 UTC)
Expired: May 7, 2016, 9:45 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 77 counties

Edwards County, IL, Franklin County, IL, Gallatin County, IL, Hamilton County, IL, Jefferson County, IL, Lawrence County, IL, Richland County, IL, Saline County, IL, Wabash County, IL, Wayne County, IL, White County, IL, Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Daviess County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Gibson County, IN, Greene County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Knox County, IN, Lawrence County, IN, Martin County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Pike County, IN, Posey County, IN, Spencer County, IN, Vanderburgh County, IN, Warrick County, IN, Washington County, IN, Adair County, KY, Anderson County, KY, Barren County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Butler County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clinton County, KY, Cumberland County, KY, Daviess County, KY, Edmonson County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Grayson County, KY, Green County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Hart County, KY, Henderson County, KY, Hopkins County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Marion County, KY, McCreary County, KY, McLean County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Metcalfe County, KY, Muhlenberg County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Ohio County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Pulaski County, KY, Rockcastle County, KY, Russell County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Taylor County, KY, Union County, KY, Warren County, KY, Washington County, KY, Wayne County, KY, Webster County, KY, Woodford County, KY

The radar

The Evansville,IN radar (KVWX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Nashville Metro, TN (KBNA), launched 00:00Z, 0.7 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2459 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 57 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

278 
ACUS11 KWNS 080043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080043 
KYZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-080245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0552
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT SAT MAY 07 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL KENTUCKY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 145...147...

VALID 080043Z - 080245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
145...147...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...WHILE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY.  WW 147 CONTINUES...

DISCUSSION...SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
CONTINUED TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH IN SOUTHEASTERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN INDIANA OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO AN
AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG OF
INSTABILITY/ AND 40-50 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR...WHICH WILL FAVOR
COMPLEX ORGANIZATION AND AN ATTENDANT SEVERE THREAT.  LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE STORMS WILL THREATEN THE LOUISVILLE METRO
AREA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

FARTHER WEST...WEAKER ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED...BUT
STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION FROM NEAR WASHINGTON/JEFFERSON
COUNTIES IN ILLINOIS NORTHWEST TO NEAR LINCOLN COUNTY MISSOURI.  THE
STORMS ARE LESS INTENSE THAN ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST.  CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...BUT THE REMAINDER OF WW 145
CAN BE CANCELLED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LESSENED THREAT.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/08/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   37488808 37698858 38018908 38308932 38488939 38568934
            38608897 38618867 38748824 38898805 38998771 39018740
            39058698 38888635 38628577 38348494 38058447 37588422
            37188413 36788416 36558426 36538466 36688529 36778587
            36788653 37038726 37248772 37488808

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 7, 9:35 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clark	55 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Indiana, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.