Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 515

April 30, 201611 counties in Arkansas; 15 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 30, 2016, 3:02 PM CDT for 11 counties in Arkansas; 15 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 30, 2016, 3:02 PM CDT (20:02 UTC)
Expired: Apr 30, 2016, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 118 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

All 26 counties

Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Conway County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Yell County, AR, Crawford County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Franklin County, MO, Gasconade County, MO, Howell County, MO, Maries County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Washington County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 132Apr 30, 4:00 PM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.0 hours before the alert went out and 119 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 194 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 485 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 52 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 252 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 155 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

055 
ACUS11 KWNS 302003
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 302002 
MOZ000-ARZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0515
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND NCNTRL ARKANSAS THROUGH SCNTRL MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 302002Z - 302200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NWRN/NCNTRL ARKANSAS
THROUGH SCNTRL MO BY EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD POSE
AT LEAST A MODEST THREAT FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A ZONE OF CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM NWRN ARKANSAS
THROUGH CNTRL MO. WV IMAGERY INDICATES A ZONE OF STRONG MID-LEVEL
DRYING WITH IMPLIED SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT
STILL BE SLIGHTLY CAPPED TO SFC-BASED DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK IN MOST OF
THIS REGION...SO ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH BE MULTICELL IN
CHARACTER AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL AND
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES TOWARD
MID-EVENING.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 04/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   35179374 35999345 36919299 37919229 38589169 38429103
            37679075 36409187 35149272 34799365 35179374

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 29, 8:56 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Calhoun, Columbia, Hempstead, Lafayette, Little River and 4 more	94 min
Apr 29, 9:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Columbia, Hempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller and 3 more	7 hr
Apr 29, 11:42 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bradley, Columbia, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 2 more	93 min
Apr 30, 3:23 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calhoun, Union	97 min
Apr 30, 3:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton and 13 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.