Alert archive / West Virginia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 484

April 28, 20165 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 28, 2016, 3:56 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 64 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 28, 2016, 3:56 PM EDT (19:56 UTC)
Expired
Apr 28, 2016, 5:00 PM EDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
80%
All 105 counties

Boyd County, KY, Greenup County, KY, Lawrence County, KY, Martin County, KY, Alamance County, NC, Alleghany County, NC, Ashe County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Davie County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Athens County, OH, Gallia County, OH, Jackson County, OH, Lawrence County, OH, Meigs County, OH, Scioto County, OH, Vinton County, OH, Washington County, OH, Alleghany County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Bath County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Bland County, VA, Botetourt County, VA, Buchanan County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Carroll County, VA, City of Buena Vista, VA, City of Covington, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Galax, VA, City of Lexington, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, City of Radford, VA, City of Roanoke, VA, City of Salem, VA, Craig County, VA, Floyd County, VA, Franklin County, VA, Giles County, VA, Grayson County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Highland County, VA, Montgomery County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Pulaski County, VA, Roanoke County, VA, Rockbridge County, VA, Smyth County, VA, Tazewell County, VA, Wythe County, VA, Barbour County, WV, Boone County, WV, Braxton County, WV, Cabell County, WV, Calhoun County, WV, Clay County, WV, Doddridge County, WV, Fayette County, WV, Gilmer County, WV, Greenbrier County, WV, Harrison County, WV, Jackson County, WV, Kanawha County, WV, Lewis County, WV, Lincoln County, WV, Logan County, WV, Mason County, WV, McDowell County, WV, Mercer County, WV, Mingo County, WV, Monroe County, WV, Nicholas County, WV, Pleasants County, WV, Pocahontas County, WV, Putnam County, WV, Raleigh County, WV, Randolph County, WV, Ritchie County, WV, Roane County, WV, Summers County, WV, Tyler County, WV, Upshur County, WV, Wayne County, WV, Webster County, WV, Wirt County, WV, Wood County, WV, Wyoming County, WV

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 86 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 12:00Z, 7.9 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-04-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 12:00Z on 2016-04-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 80 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1309 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
80 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
143 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

628 
ACUS11 KWNS 281957
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281956 
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-282100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0484
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL WV SEWD INTO SW VA AND NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 281956Z - 282100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM CNTRL WV SEWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS INTO WRN/NRN NC...POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG
WIND.

DISCUSSION...SCTD TSTMS ARE FORMING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WV/SW
VA AND WRN NC...IN LOBE OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD IN BASE OF WEAKENING
MIDWEST TROUGH. 40-50 UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY 700-500 MB FLOW COULD
SUPPORT A FEW SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR
SVR HAIL AND WIND AS THEY GROW UPSCALE INTO TWO OR THREE ESE-MOVING
CLUSTERS THROUGH EARLY TNGT. SOME HAIL THREAT COULD ALSO EXTEND EWD
ATOP COOL BNDRY LYR AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE E SLOPES OF THE MTNS.

..CORFIDI.. 04/28/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...
JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   35627886 36587856 38097935 39077974 39478066 39678155
            39498245 39198297 38848315 38448303 37638242 36418170
            35358014 35627886

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 27, 8:24 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdair, Allen, Barren, Bullitt, Cumberland, Green and 16 more2 hr
Apr 28, 4:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAlamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Burke, Caldwell and 32 more7 hr
Apr 28, 7:03 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlamance, Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Caswell, Chatham and 34 more87 min
Apr 28, 3:53 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCButler, Clinton, Fayette, Greene, Hamilton, Montgomery and 2 more97 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in West Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Virginia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.