Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 435

April 23, 20165 counties in Colorado; 9 counties in Kansas; Dundy County, Hitchcock County, Nebraska

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 23, 2016, 8:28 PM MDT for 5 counties in Colorado; 9 counties in Kansas; Dundy County, Hitchcock County, Nebraska. It was in force for 92 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 23, 2016, 8:28 PM MDT (02:28 UTC)
Expired
Apr 23, 2016, 10:00 PM MDT
In force
92 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2016-04-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 23 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 00:00Z on 2016-04-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 46 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
23 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-8 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
3519 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
46 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

720 
ACUS11 KWNS 240229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240228 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...AND SWRN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 240228Z - 240400Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...02Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA CONSOLIDATES
ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL CO ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 40-50 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THIS CONVECTION IS ENTERING A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR
ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB...WHERE MLCAPE RANGES FROM 250-500 J/KG PER
RAP MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN FAST STORM MOTIONS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES...GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. CONTINUED
DIURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING MLCIN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THESE STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50 KT ALLOWING FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.

..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

LAT...LON   38750275 39490276 40260236 40460180 40460103 40260058
            39250047 38270082 37960212 37950311 38750275

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 24, 12:50 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Dickinson and 19 more2 hr
Apr 24, 1:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCJewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Smith8 hr
Apr 24, 2:04 PM MDTTornado WatchSPCBarber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clay and 39 more9 hr
Apr 24, 4:50 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 42 more55 min
Apr 24, 5:10 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Jewell, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington65 min
Apr 24, 12:31 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAntelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar and 35 more119 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.