Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 435
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 23, 2016, 8:28 PM MDT for 5 counties in Colorado; 9 counties in Kansas; Dundy County, Hitchcock County, Nebraska. It was in force for 92 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 23, 2016, 8:28 PM MDT (02:28 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 23, 2016, 10:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 92 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Logan County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 135 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 23 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3519 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 46 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 59 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
720
ACUS11 KWNS 240229
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240228
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-240400-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0435
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT SAT APR 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN CO...WRN KS...AND SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 240228Z - 240400Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH ABOUT 04Z.
WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...02Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD
ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA CONSOLIDATES
ACROSS NERN WY/WRN SD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL CO ALONG THE COLD FRONT...AND THEY SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 40-50 KT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THIS CONVECTION IS ENTERING A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS FAR
ERN CO/WRN KS/SWRN NEB...WHERE MLCAPE RANGES FROM 250-500 J/KG PER
RAP MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN FAST STORM MOTIONS AND STRONG MID-LEVEL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN/CNTRL
ROCKIES...GUSTY TO PERHAPS LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z GIVEN A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. CONTINUED
DIURNAL COOLING AND INCREASING MLCIN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN THESE STORMS BECOMING ELEVATED...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE THE
WIND THREAT. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH A
VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
40-50 KT ALLOWING FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
..GLEASON/CORFIDI.. 04/24/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...
LAT...LON 38750275 39490276 40260236 40460180 40460103 40260058
39250047 38270082 37960212 37950311 38750275SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 12:50 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Clay, Cloud, Comanche, Dickinson and 19 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 24, 1:28 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Jewell, Mitchell, Osborne, Smith | 8 hr |
| Apr 24, 2:04 PM MDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Clay and 39 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 24, 4:50 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Barton, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 42 more | 55 min |
| Apr 24, 5:10 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Jewell, Marshall, Nemaha, Republic, Washington | 65 min |
| Apr 24, 12:31 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Antelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar and 35 more | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Nebraska, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.