Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 34
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 21, 2016, 11:03 AM CST for 6 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 87 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 21, 2016, 11:03 AM CST (17:03 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 21, 2016, 12:30 PM CST
- In force
- 87 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Attala County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Leake County, MS, Madison County, MS, Warren County, MS, Yazoo County, MS
The radar
The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 45 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 5.1 hours before the alert went out and 37 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 551 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 173 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 154 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
862
ACUS11 KWNS 211704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211703
MSZ000-LAZ000-211830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0034
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL MS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 211703Z - 211830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL FROM AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL HAS
DEVELOPED NW OF JACKSON. THIS THREAT MAY PERSIST WITHIN A RELATIVELY
CONFINED AREA ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS.
DISCUSSION...AN ELEVATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPED OVER WARREN COUNTY MS
AND IS PROGRESSING ALONG THE BIG BLACK RIVER VALLEY. OBSERVATIONAL
ANALYSIS PLACES THIS CELL AROUND 30 MILES N OF THE WARM FRONT
EVIDENT ACROSS CLAIBORNE INTO SRN RANKIN COUNTIES AS OF 17Z. STRONG
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED IN 12Z
JAN/LCH RAOBS WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE HAIL RISK WITH THIS STORM.
HOWEVER...THIS CELL WILL PROBABLY WANE IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO GIVEN A PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE AND WEAKER ELEVATED BUOYANCY
TO THE N/E. A WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY FOR THIS THREAT...BUT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS GREATER
SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND S OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 01/21/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...JAN...
LAT...LON 32609063 32769059 33078995 33158959 33098921 32828920
32548975 32269029 32119064 32149108 32479107 32609063SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 1:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Amite, Claiborne, Copiah, Covington, Forrest and 13 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 21, 2:14 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Amite, Claiborne, Clarke, Copiah, Covington and 26 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 21, 4:57 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Amite, Jefferson Davis, Lawrence, Lincoln, Pike, Simpson and 2 more | 63 min |
| Jan 21, 5:29 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clarke, George, Greene, Harrison, Jackson, Lauderdale and 3 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.