Alert archive / Georgia / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 321

April 1, 201624 counties in Georgia; 15 counties in South Carolina

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 1, 2016, 1:31 AM EDT for 24 counties in Georgia; 15 counties in South Carolina. It was in force for 89 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 1, 2016, 1:31 AM EDT (05:31 UTC)
Expired
Apr 1, 2016, 3:00 AM EDT
In force
89 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%
All 39 counties

Baldwin County, GA, Bleckley County, GA, Burke County, GA, Columbia County, GA, Dodge County, GA, Elbert County, GA, Emanuel County, GA, Glascock County, GA, Hancock County, GA, Hart County, GA, Jefferson County, GA, Jenkins County, GA, Johnson County, GA, Laurens County, GA, Lincoln County, GA, McDuffie County, GA, Richmond County, GA, Taliaferro County, GA, Treutlen County, GA, Twiggs County, GA, Warren County, GA, Washington County, GA, Wilkes County, GA, Wilkinson County, GA, Abbeville County, SC, Aiken County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Chester County, SC, Edgefield County, SC, Fairfield County, SC, Greenville County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Lexington County, SC, McCormick County, SC, Newberry County, SC, Saluda County, SC, Spartanburg County, SC, Union County, SC

The radar

The Columbia radar (KCAE), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 00:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2016-04-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 138 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA at 00:00Z on 2016-04-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 260 square meters per square second.1939587897117136Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
138 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-65 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
960 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
260 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
286 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
2.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

682 
ACUS11 KWNS 010531
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010531 
SCZ000-GAZ000-010700-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0321
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1231 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...UPSTATE SC / CNTRL SC / E-CNTRL AND CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 010531Z - 010700Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A WATCH.  ISOLD DMGG WIND
WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AT 0530Z SHOWS A MCV OVER FAR NRN GA WITH
A BROKEN BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE FROM EXTREME NERN GA ARCING SWD
TOWARDS AHN AND SWWD TO NEAR MCN.  THE LOW CAPE/STRONG SHEAR SHEAR
REGIME DENOTED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR STORM
ORGANIZATION.  SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY MANIFEST AN ISOLD
WIND-DAMAGE RISK WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT MOVES EWD BUT THIS
THREAT WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIMITED GIVEN WEAK LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.  GIVEN THE WEAK BUOYANCY REGIME...IT REMAINS UNLIKELY
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EVOLVE BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IF
THIS SCENARIO WERE TO UNFOLD.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/01/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON   32348371 33948273 34538313 34978238 34928137 34478080
            33678115 32358232 32128313 32348371

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 31, 8:09 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrooks, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Grady, Lowndes and 3 more96 min
Mar 31, 8:41 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarrow, Bartow, Butts, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattahoochee and 42 more94 min
Mar 31, 9:14 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCBanks, Barrow, Bartow, Bibb, Butts, Carroll and 65 more18 hr
Mar 31, 11:11 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBartow, Bibb, Butts, Carroll, Catoosa, Chattahoochee and 43 more64 min
Apr 1, 3:03 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChattahoochee, Harris, Marion, Muscogee, Stewart57 min
Apr 1, 5:46 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCalhoun, Chattahoochee, Clay, Crisp, Dooly, Dougherty and 17 more89 min
Apr 1, 7:26 AM EDTTornado WatchSPCBaker, Baldwin, Ben Hill, Bibb, Bleckley, Bryan and 54 more12 hr
Apr 1, 11:40 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Baldwin, Ben Hill and 69 more2 hr
Apr 1, 2:00 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 54 more60 min
Apr 1, 2:48 PM EDTTornado WatchSPCAppling, Atkinson, Bacon, Baker, Ben Hill, Berrien and 50 more6 hr
Apr 1, 5:40 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrantley, Bryan, Camden, Charlton, Chatham, Clinch and 9 more65 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Carolina, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.