Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 301

March 31, 201612 counties in Alabama; 4 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2016, 8:37 AM CDT for 12 counties in Alabama; 4 counties in Florida. It was in force for 53 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2016, 8:37 AM CDT (13:37 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2016, 9:30 AM CDT
In force: 53 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 80%

Counties Baldwin County, AL, Butler County, AL, Choctaw County, AL, Clarke County, AL, Conecuh County, AL, Covington County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Escambia County, AL, Mobile County, AL, Monroe County, AL, Washington County, AL, Wilcox County, AL, Escambia County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 67Mar 31, 8:45 AM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 229 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1040 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 441 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 538 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

181 
ACUS11 KWNS 311337
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 311337 COR
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-311430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0301
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0837 AM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 311337Z - 311430Z

CORRECTED FOR AREAS AFFECTED

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE
WILL CONTINUE AS CELLS MOVE EWD ACROSS SRN AL AND INTO THE FAR WRN
FL PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE REGION SHORTLY.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SEVERE
POTENTIAL...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD INTO SRN AL OVER THE NEXT
HOUR. AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS SRN AL WHERE MLCAPE
VALUES ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 500 J/KG. INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE
THIS MORNING AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE. THIS COMBINED WITH 55 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EVIDENT ON THE MOBILE
88D-VWP SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT THIS MORNING.
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A WIND DAMAGE
THREAT AS WELL.

..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON   30478616 30348738 30368844 31618855 32048824 32118692
            31878608 30478616

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 7:47 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Washington	58 min
Mar 31, 8:43 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baldwin, Clarke, Conecuh, Covington, Escambia, Mobile and 2 more	5 hr
Mar 31, 11:29 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Butler, Coffee, Conecuh, Covington, Crenshaw and 5 more	2 hr
Mar 31, 1:32 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baldwin, Covington, Escambia, Geneva	58 min
Mar 31, 4:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke, Colbert and 19 more	58 min
Mar 31, 5:58 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Autauga, Bibb, Blount, Chilton, Choctaw, Clarke and 33 more	7 hr
Mar 31, 6:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bibb, Blount, Choctaw, Colbert, Cullman, Dallas and 22 more	53 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.