Mesoscale Discussion 255

Issued

Mar 23, 2016, 6:25 PM CDT (23:25 UTC)

Expired

Mar 23, 2016, 8:00 PM CDT

In force

95 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Chance of a watch

80%

The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 53Mar 23, 6:45 PM CDT

619 
ACUS11 KWNS 232326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232325 
TXZ000-OKZ000-240100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN IN CENTRAL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 232325Z - 240100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TX THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN. THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT COULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL TX INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTH TX THIS
EVENING...THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS SEVERE THREAT STILL
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A TONGUE OF GREATER INSTABILITY CURRENTLY LIES
ACROSS THE METROPLEX VICINITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE DRYLINE. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE
COUPLED WITH INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
FURTHER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER THAN 45 KT WILL
SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN AS
INITIAL STORM MODE SHOULD BE SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT...LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BECOME PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY. THIS
MAY RESULT IN A TREND TOWARD LINEAR/BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS POSSIBLE IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. 0-1KM SRH WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT...BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 

FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TX...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH REGARDS
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHER
MLCAPE VALUES SPREADING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE METROPLEX TOWARD
AUS AND VICINITY. ADDITIONALLY...AGITATED CU NEAR/JUST BEHIND THE
DRYLINE WAS NOTED IN VIS SAT FROM NEAR DYS TO SJT. HOWEVER...FORCING
FOR ASCENT AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER/LESS FAVORABLE ACROSS THIS
REGION. HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE IS ALSO LACKING GIVEN VEERED LOW
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MCD AREA. SHOULD
STORMS DEVELOP THIS FAR SOUTH...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 03/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON   32549551 31969592 31049670 30269771 30099871 30169939
            30439972 30859962 31549902 32439834 33439744 33749686
            33819658 33799644 33879611 33819575 33709550 33449534
            33149524 32549551

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.