Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 253

March 23, 201613 counties in Oklahoma; Cooke County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 23, 2016, 3:53 PM CDT for 13 counties in Oklahoma; Cooke County, Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 23, 2016, 3:53 PM CDT (20:53 UTC)
Expired: Mar 23, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Coal County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Cooke County, TX

The radar

The Norman radar (KTLX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 706 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 671 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 763 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

754 
ACUS11 KWNS 232054
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232053 
OKZ000-TXZ000-232300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0253
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 232053Z - 232300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS PART OF
NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO EAST-CENTRAL OK BETWEEN 23-00Z...WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT ALL POSSIBLE AS STORMS
INCREASE IN INTENSITY.  WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...RAPID-SCAN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DETECTED AN
INCREASE IN CU FORMATION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHWARD INTO
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TX...WITH ADDITIONAL CU BECOMING
SUSTAINED TO IN VICINITY OF THE TULSA METRO AREA.  THIS CU WAS
FORMING WITHIN A SUSTAINED CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE IN
VICINITY OF THE DRY LINE...AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED LOWERING LFCS AND
WEAKENING INHIBITION WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF CU DEVELOPMENT WITH
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 50 KT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS PRODUCING PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH THE INITIAL STORMS.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAKER AT THIS
TIME...LIMITING THE TORNADO THREAT WITH INITIAL STORMS...THOUGH AN
INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR BY EARLY EVENING COULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASED TORNADO THREAT.  MOST HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST STORM
DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 22-00Z.

..PETERS/GRAMS.. 03/23/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   36039603 35939527 34929525 34109586 33779627 33559702
            33639729 33929726 34649683 35379655 35929631 36039603

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 23, 5:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 20 more	6 hr
Mar 23, 6:17 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Craig, Nowata, Ottawa	2 hr
Mar 23, 6:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Burnet, Collin, Comanche and 35 more	95 min
Mar 23, 6:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bell, Bosque, Collin, Comanche, Cooke, Coryell and 28 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.