Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 22

January 15, 20169 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 15, 2016, 10:12 AM EST for 9 counties in Florida. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 15, 2016, 10:12 AM EST (15:12 UTC)
Expired: Jan 15, 2016, 12:15 PM EST
In force: 2 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 60%

Counties Broward County, FL, Charlotte County, FL, Collier County, FL, Glades County, FL, Hendry County, FL, Lee County, FL, Martin County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL, Saint Lucie County, FL

The radar

The Miami radar (KAMX), 139 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 3Jan 15, 10:35 AM EST

The nearest sounding before it

Miami, FL (KMFL), launched 12:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 247 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -14 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 756 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 71 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 297 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 386 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.3
Supercell composite: 1.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

453 
ACUS11 KWNS 151513
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151512 
FLZ000-151715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0912 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 151512Z - 151715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A RELATIVELY NARROW ZONE ACROSS SRN FL MAY SEE A
RELATIVELY HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE WIND OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO
TODAY...AND A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE
TRENDS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF CELLS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF POSSIBLY
BEING SEVERE NOW APPROACHING THE FORT MYERS VICINITY WITH BROAD
MIDLEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ROBUST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LOWER
70S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70 F. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER GRADUALLY WITH TIME...FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD BE FOCUSED IN A W-E ORIENTED ZONE
WHICH IS ALSO ALONG A WEAK PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BOUNDARY.

..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 01/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

LAT...LON   26988239 27498021 26677992 26158003 25768161 26338205
            26988239

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 15, 6:17 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Dixie, Taylor, Wakulla	88 min
Jan 15, 8:53 AM EST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Charlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough and 8 more	2 hr
Jan 15, 10:35 AM EST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Broward, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hendry and 8 more	6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.