Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 20

January 15, 2016Dixie County, Taylor County, Wakulla County, Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 15, 2016, 6:17 AM EST for Dixie County, Taylor County, Wakulla County, Florida. It was in force for 88 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 15, 2016, 6:17 AM EST (11:17 UTC)
Expired
Jan 15, 2016, 7:45 AM EST
In force
88 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Dixie County, FL, Taylor County, FL, Wakulla County, FL

The radar

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 00:00Z, 11.3 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-01-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 00:00Z on 2016-01-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 205 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2471 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
205 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
260 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

980 
ACUS11 KWNS 151118
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151117 
FLZ000-151245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 AM CST FRI JAN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151117Z - 151245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...GUSTY WINDS...WITH ISOLATED LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...A DEFINED BOWING SEGMENT WAS TRACKING
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND AREA NEAR AAF TO TLH...AND
THE AAF ASOS RECORDED A 48 KT GUST AS THE LINE PASSED. THE AIRMASS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOWING SEGMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
JEFFERSON...TAYLOR AND DIXIE COUNTIES IS SOMEWHAT POORER...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH SURFACE WINDS FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. WHILE SURFACE BASED CAPE IS MINIMAL...A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LLJ NEAR 50 KT WAS NOTED ON THE TLH VWP WILL AID IN GUSTY
WIND POTENTIAL NEAR THE COAST. AS STORMS TRACK INLAND...WEAKENING
SHOULD OCCUR. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LIMITED
AERIAL AND TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

..LEITMAN/DIAL.. 01/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...TAE...

LAT...LON   30378405 30388365 30198329 29768306 29358306 29338333
            29848379 29918430 30108445 30318436 30378405

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jan 15, 8:53 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCharlotte, Citrus, DeSoto, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough and 8 more2 hr
Jan 15, 10:12 AM ESTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBroward, Charlotte, Collier, Glades, Hendry, Lee and 3 more2 hr
Jan 15, 10:35 AM ESTTornado WatchSPCBroward, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hendry and 8 more6 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.