Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 14
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 9, 2016, 2:41 PM EST for 5 counties in Florida. It was in force for 64 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 9, 2016, 2:41 PM EST (19:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 9, 2016, 3:45 PM EST
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
Counties Charlotte County, FL, Lee County, FL, Manatee County, FL, Pinellas County, FL, Sarasota County, FL
The radar
The Tampa radar (KTBW), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 45 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -162 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 822 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 45 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 179 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 261 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
658
ACUS11 KWNS 091942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091941
FLZ000-092045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0014
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0141 PM CST SAT JAN 09 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091941Z - 092045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE SPREADING TOWARD AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND MAY REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME. AREAL COVERAGE/EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LOW ENOUGH THAT A WATCH PROBABLY IS NOT
NEEDED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY. SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES ARE BEING INCREASED TO A
CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA IN THE UPCOMING
20Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED
WITHIN AN AREA OF BROAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DESTABILIZATION OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA GULF COAST. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REACH COASTAL AREAS DURING THE
21-23Z TIME FRAME...BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD INLAND.
THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDES SEVERAL DISCRETE CELLS...SOME WITH STRONG
MID-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT...PERHAPS WITHIN A ZONE OF ENHANCED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ALONG AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA BAY, THE LATEST RAPID REFRESH
SUGGESTS THAT MODEST STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW TO
AROUND 30 KT MAY ACCOMPANY THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION
THOUGH EARLY EVENING. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR WHETHER THERE WILL
BE MUCH FURTHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING/DEEPENING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO COASTAL AREAS. BUT IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THE
RISK WILL INCREASE FOR SUPERCELLS SPREADING INLAND WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
..KERR/WEISS.. 01/09/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...
LAT...LON 28348292 28148261 27788230 26968162 26468162 26048212
26078310 26398370 27808436 28688430 28508324 28348292SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 11:03 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson and 5 more | 117 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.