Alert archive / Florida / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 12

January 9, 201611 counties in Florida

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 9, 2016, 10:03 AM CST for 11 counties in Florida. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jan 9, 2016, 10:03 AM CST (16:03 UTC)
Expired: Jan 9, 2016, 12:00 PM CST
In force: 117 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Bay County, FL, Calhoun County, FL, Escambia County, FL, Gulf County, FL, Holmes County, FL, Jackson County, FL, Liberty County, FL, Okaloosa County, FL, Santa Rosa County, FL, Walton County, FL, Washington County, FL

The radar

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 197 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 697 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 131 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 167 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

995 
ACUS11 KWNS 091603
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091603 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-091800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CST SAT JAN 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SRN
ALABAMA/SW GEORGIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 091603Z - 091800Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN NOW AND 18-20Z.  SOME STORMS
MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.  HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH
ACTIVITY IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REQUIRE A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH...ESPECIALLY GIVEN APPARENT MINIMAL RISK FOR DAMAGING SURFACE
GUSTS AND TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF CONVECTION AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF
COAST/NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION.  THIS GENERALLY COINCIDES
WITH FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF A SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE NOW TURNING EAST NORTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...TOWARD THE MID SOUTH REGION.  HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE AND RADAR DATA SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS...SOME WITH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...PROBABLY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A 40-50 KT
SOUTHERLY 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM WHICH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN NOSING
INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THE 18-20Z TIME
FRAME.  

FROM THE COASTAL WATERS INLAND THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN...THE
POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION REMAINS A
BIT UNCERTAIN.  IT CURRENTLY SEEMS UNLIKELY...BUT IT DOES APPEAR
THAT MOISTENING ABOVE A RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG.  IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER...THE ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE TO AT LEAST THE RISK FOR
SEVERE HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.

..KERR/WEISS.. 01/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   29928795 30468757 31088620 31008497 30018461 29538537
            29748586 29978659 29928795

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jan 9, 1:41 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Charlotte, Lee, Manatee, Pinellas, Sarasota	64 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.