Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1249

July 11, 201612 counties in North Dakota; 4 counties in South Dakota

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 11, 2016, 4:03 PM CDT for 12 counties in North Dakota; 4 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 11, 2016, 4:03 PM CDT (21:03 UTC)
Expired
Jul 11, 2016, 6:00 PM CDT
In force
117 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
20%

Counties Benson County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Kidder County, ND, Logan County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Wells County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Walworth County, SD

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 52 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2016-07-11Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Bismarck Municip, ND at 12:00Z on 2016-07-11The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 6 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1187 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
62 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
6 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-53 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

961 
ACUS11 KWNS 112103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112103 
NDZ000-SDZ000-112300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0403 PM CDT MON JUL 11 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF CENTRAL ND AND NORTH-CENTRAL SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 112103Z - 112300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE...
GENERALLY SOUTH-NORTH ALONG WIND SHIFT AND LEADING EXTENT OF
STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH THE ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW/TROUGH
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN.  SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAKER THAN
LOCATIONS FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM
500-1000 J/KG.  THIS WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS...WHILE A BAND OF STRONG SWLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS SPREADS FROM WESTERN SD INTO NORTH DAKOTA SUPPORTING STRONG
BULK SHEAR.  SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
INITIATING BOUNDARY SUGGESTS LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL
WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREATS.

..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 07/11/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   45660126 46710113 48040081 48299972 48269905 47839833
            46149896 45529936 45409962 45380110 45660126

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 10, 7:35 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Benson, Bottineau, Burleigh, Cavalier, Dunn and 28 more55 min
Jul 10, 10:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarnes, Benson, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Eddy and 20 more89 min
Jul 10, 10:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBarnes, Benson, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Eddy and 20 more6 hr
Jul 11, 1:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarnes, Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Grant, Kidder and 7 more58 min
Jul 11, 4:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarnes, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, LaMoure, Logan and 6 more84 min
Jul 10, 7:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrule, Buffalo, Dewey, Faulk, Haakon, Hand and 12 more96 min
Jul 11, 1:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCGrant, Roberts89 min
Jul 11, 3:16 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClay, Lincoln, Minnehaha, Moody, Turner, Union and 1 more119 min
Jul 11, 3:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClay, Lincoln, Minnehaha, Moody, Turner, Union and 1 more7 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.