Alert archive / North Dakota / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1239
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 10, 2016, 6:35 PM MDT for 34 counties in North Dakota; 7 counties in South Dakota. It was in force for 55 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 10, 2016, 6:35 PM MDT (00:35 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 10, 2016, 7:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 55 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 41 counties
Adams County, ND, Benson County, ND, Bottineau County, ND, Burleigh County, ND, Cavalier County, ND, Dunn County, ND, Eddy County, ND, Emmons County, ND, Foster County, ND, Grant County, ND, Griggs County, ND, Hettinger County, ND, Kidder County, ND, LaMoure County, ND, Logan County, ND, McHenry County, ND, McIntosh County, ND, McLean County, ND, Mercer County, ND, Morton County, ND, Mountrail County, ND, Nelson County, ND, Oliver County, ND, Pierce County, ND, Ramsey County, ND, Renville County, ND, Rolette County, ND, Sheridan County, ND, Sioux County, ND, Stark County, ND, Stutsman County, ND, Towner County, ND, Ward County, ND, Wells County, ND, Campbell County, SD, Corson County, SD, Dewey County, SD, Edmunds County, SD, McPherson County, SD, Perkins County, SD, Walworth County, SD
The radar
The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 51 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 0.6 hours before the alert went out and 48 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1848 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -98 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1509 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 39 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 265 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 4.0
The text
As transmitted.
148
ACUS11 KWNS 110035
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110035
NDZ000-SDZ000-110130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ND...N-CNTRL SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369...
VALID 110035Z - 110130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 369
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...DMGG WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT IS SPREADING EWD INTO
S-CNTRL ND. TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN FLANK OF THE LINE IS
BUILDING INTO NWRN SD...AND TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
NEW WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS THIS AREA.
DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW DEVELOPING TSTM LINE FOCUSED
ACROSS SWRN ND EXHIBITING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH DMGG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL...WITH THE FORMER THREAT BEING LOCALLY ENHANCED WITHIN
EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES. A 51 KT GUST WAS REPORTED AT KDIK AT
2344Z. CURRENT MOTION OF THIS LINE WAS ESTIMATED E AT AROUND 25
KT...AND MAY REACH THE BISMARCK ND AREA 230-300Z. CONVECTION ACROSS
NWRN ND HAS GENERALLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST HR...BUT THE AIR MASS
IN N-CNTRL ND IS STILL MOIST/UNSTABLE AND REINTENSIFICATION REMAINS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...TSTMS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE SRN FLANK
OF THE LINE INTO NWRN SD. SHOULD CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE WITHIN THIS PORTION OF THE LINE...A NEW SMALL WATCH MAY BE
NECESSARY ACROSS N-CNTRL SD...WHERE A RESERVOIR OF ESTIMATED
3500-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IS POSITIONED.
..ROGERS/HART.. 07/11/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 48949813 46779827 45329884 44900099 45480279 47250293
48980196 48949813SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 10, 9:16 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Benson, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Eddy and 20 more | 89 min |
| Jul 10, 9:40 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Barnes, Benson, Burleigh, Cass, Dickey, Eddy and 20 more | 6 hr |
| Jul 11, 12:32 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Burleigh, Dickey, Emmons, Grant, Kidder and 7 more | 58 min |
| Jul 11, 3:06 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barnes, Cass, Dickey, Emmons, LaMoure, Logan and 6 more | 84 min |
| Jul 11, 3:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benson, Burleigh, Eddy, Emmons, Foster, Kidder and 6 more | 117 min |
| Jul 10, 6:54 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brule, Buffalo, Dewey, Faulk, Haakon, Hand and 12 more | 96 min |
| Jul 11, 12:01 AM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Grant, Roberts | 89 min |
| Jul 11, 2:16 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Lincoln, Minnehaha, Moody, Turner, Union and 1 more | 119 min |
| Jul 11, 2:48 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clay, Lincoln, Minnehaha, Moody, Turner, Union and 1 more | 7 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Dakota, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in South Dakota, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.