Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1122
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 3, 2016, 2:43 PM CDT for 30 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 3, 2016, 2:43 PM CDT (19:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 3, 2016, 4:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 30 counties
Atoka County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Cleveland County, OK, Coal County, OK, Creek County, OK, Garvin County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Hughes County, OK, Latimer County, OK, Lincoln County, OK, Logan County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McClain County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Murray County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Noble County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Oklahoma County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Pawnee County, OK, Payne County, OK, Pittsburg County, OK, Pontotoc County, OK, Pottawatomie County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Seminole County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK
The radar
The Tulsa radar (KINX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1279 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -47 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 859 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 194 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 241 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.3
- Supercell composite
- 9.8
The text
As transmitted.
942
ACUS11 KWNS 031944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031943
OKZ000-032145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1122
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CDT SUN JUL 03 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY
VALID 031943Z - 032145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL OK AND DEVELOP INTO
MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH A PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS...ALONG
WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL CB DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED OVER PAYNE AND
LOGAN COUNTIES NEAR A 1009 MB SURFACE CYCLONE. PERSISTENT
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS CYCLONE SHOULD FOSTER ADDITIONAL STORMS
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AIR MASS SOUTH OF THIS CYCLONE IS STRONGLY
UNSTABLE PER MODIFIED 17Z LAMONT RAOB AMID A PLUME OF MIDDLE 70S
SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN MODEST...THE
LARGE MLCAPE AND INCREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY FOSTER A
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD POOL BY EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE MAIN
HAZARD...BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/03/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36249746 36489713 36649586 36539517 36349476 36049467
35689466 35059492 34379572 34289649 34499748 34779785
35379762 36249746SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 9:20 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Beaver, Grant, Harper, Texas, Woods and 1 more | 85 min |
| Jul 3, 2:46 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Cimarron | 119 min |
| Jul 3, 3:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter and 45 more | 8 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.