Mesoscale Discussion 112

Issued

Feb 16, 2016, 4:59 AM EST (09:59 UTC)

Expired

Feb 16, 2016, 6:00 AM EST

In force

61 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Hendry County, FL, Palm Beach County, FL

The Miami radar (KAMX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 10:00 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

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393 
ACUS11 KWNS 160959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160959 
FLZ000-161100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CST TUE FEB 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FL EVERGLADES

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

VALID 160959Z - 161100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE FL EVERGLADES AND MOVING INTO PALM BEACH
COUNTY THROUGH 11-12Z.

DISCUSSION...RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A
WEDGE OF HIGHER MOISTURE/THETA-E NEAR AND S OF A LINE FROM APF NEWD
TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR THE MARTIN/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. 
LOWER 70S TEMPS AND UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS WITHIN THIS REGION ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY /AROUND 1000 J PER KG MLCAPE/. 
WHILE THE MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER GA BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING...THE SRN
PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE W OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  AS A RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO OR TWO WILL CONTINUE
FOR AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...ESPECIALLY FOR HENDRY
AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  IT IS HERE WHERE
AN ANCHORING SUPERCELL IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND POSE THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR ISOLD DMGG WINDS AND A TORNADO COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER
N WITH THE SQUALL LINE.  

UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE THREAT
FARTHER S FOR BROWARD COUNTY SWWD TO THE TEN THOUSAND ISLANDS. 
CURRENT THINKING IS THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM THE W
WILL OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK.  THE FACTORS OF 1) LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO VEER AND 2) UPPER WAVE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DISPLACED FROM
THE REGION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING LESS
SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES. THEREFORE...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DOUBT
ABOUT THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH OR A WATCH EXTENSION-IN-AREA SOUTH OF
THE EXISTING WATCH.

..SMITH.. 02/16/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

LAT...LON   26188144 26428137 26968049 26888007 26428012 26048129
            26188144

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.