Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1114
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 2, 2016, 11:55 AM MDT for 4 states. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 2, 2016, 11:55 AM MDT (17:55 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 2, 2016, 2:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 21 counties
Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Las Animas County, CO, Otero County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Finney County, KS, Ford County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Union County, NM, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 200 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 207 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 50 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -294 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 817 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 38 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 299 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 391 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.6
The text
As transmitted.
122
ACUS11 KWNS 021755
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021755
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-022000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1114
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...RATON MESA TO SOUTHWEST KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 021755Z - 022000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION
BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY AN ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK.
COMPARATIVELY GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST EAST IN
SOUTHWEST KS TOWARDS EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS COMMENCED OVER THE RATON
MESA ALONG THE SOUTHEAST CO/NORTHEAST NM BORDER...WITH CU INCREASING
DOWNSTREAM NEAR A SURFACE CYCLONE OVER SOUTHWEST KS. GIVEN THE
UNCAPPED/MODESTLY BUOYANT AIR MASS...CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE
CYCLONE SHOULD YIELD INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT INTO LATE
AFTERNOON. A BELT OF CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM
OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR WEAK SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND AN
ATTENDANT SEVERE HAIL/WIND RISK. OVERALL COVERAGE OF THIS RISK
SHOULD INCREASE TOWARDS EARLY EVENING AS STORMS BEGIN TO
CONGLOMERATE...ESPECIALLY WITH EASTERN EXTENT IN SOUTHWEST KS.
..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 07/02/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 38250106 38449998 38039958 37529973 36920013 36410144
36240333 36460447 37010485 37340481 37760446 38130352
38010262 38250106SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 7:48 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baca | 117 min |
| Jul 1, 10:15 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 14 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 2, 3:05 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 41 more | 7 hr |
| Jul 2, 5:03 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clark, Comanche and 25 more | 87 min |
| Jul 2, 5:10 PM MDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Comanche, Cotton, Jackson, Tillman | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.