Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016

Mesoscale Discussion 1111

July 1, 2016Baca County, Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas; Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 1, 2016, 7:48 PM MDT for Baca County, Colorado; 15 counties in Kansas; Cimarron County, Texas County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2016, 7:48 PM MDT (01:48 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2016, 9:45 PM MDT
In force: 117 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

Counties Baca County, CO, Finney County, KS, Grant County, KS, Gray County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Hamilton County, KS, Haskell County, KS, Kearny County, KS, Lane County, KS, Meade County, KS, Morton County, KS, Scott County, KS, Seward County, KS, Stanton County, KS, Stevens County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Cimarron County, OK, Texas County, OK

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 158 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 164 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 94 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -97 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1068 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 139 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

060 
ACUS11 KWNS 020148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020148 
KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-020345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1111
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0848 PM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...FAR SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 020148Z - 020345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SEVERE WIND GUST AND BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DEVELOPING QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...BUT THE THREAT IS ISOLATED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
REQUIRE A WATCH.

DISCUSSION...A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER
BACA AND PROWERS COUNTIES IN COLORADO AND EXTENDING INTO CIMARRON
COUNTY OKLAHOMA IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD UNDER RELATIVELY WEAK MEAN
MID-LEVEL FLOW PER REGIONAL 00Z SOUNDINGS. LINEAR
ORGANIZATION...WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 6-6.5 C/KM AND
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF THE SEVERE
WIND AND HAIL THREAT THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENCE OF
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES AND ENLARGING LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS UNDER A
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND SOUTHWESTERLY 700 MB FLOW HAS
INCREASED THE EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY TO 300-400 M2/S2
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...INCLUDING 0-1 KM SHEAR INCREASING TO OVER 20
KT. THIS ENHANCEMENT IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR OVERLAPS WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED UNDER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INFLUX FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE DISCRETE STORM MODES HAVE NOT
MATERIALIZED...A POTENTIAL FOR MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES ALONG THE QLCS AND A MARGINAL THREAT FOR A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO AND A SEVERE WIND GUST REMAINS THE NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL NOCTURNAL NEAR-SURFACE COOLING DECOUPLES THE
BOUNDARY LAYER FROM THE RESIDUAL MIXED LAYER ALOFT.

..CONIGLIO/COHEN/GUYER.. 07/02/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

LAT...LON   36570288 36960282 37120288 37740228 38070227 38450210
            38690146 38640086 38500031 38140012 37330027 36990055
            36630122 36600135 36530220 36560251 36570288

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 11:55 AM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Baca, Bent, Las Animas, Otero, Prowers	2 hr
Jul 1, 10:15 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 14 more	3 hr
Jul 2, 3:05 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 41 more	7 hr
Jul 2, 5:03 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Barber, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua, Clark, Comanche and 25 more	87 min
Jul 2, 5:10 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Comanche, Cotton, Jackson, Tillman	95 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2016 Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2016 Every mesoscale discussion in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.