Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2016
Mesoscale Discussion 1104
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 1, 2016, 12:51 PM EDT for 7 states. It was in force for 114 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 1, 2016, 12:51 PM EDT (16:51 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 1, 2016, 2:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 114 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 74 counties
New Castle County, DE, Berkshire County, MA, Baltimore County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Harford County, MD, Bergen County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Albany County, NY, Bronx County, NY, Broome County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Kings County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, New York County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Orange County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Berks County, PA, Bucks County, PA, Carbon County, PA, Chester County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lancaster County, PA, Lebanon County, PA, Lehigh County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Monroe County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Pike County, PA, Schuylkill County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Wyoming County, PA, York County, PA, Bennington County, VT
The radar
The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 4.9 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -139 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1455 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 30 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 26 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
735
ACUS11 KWNS 011651
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011651
MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-011845-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1104
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 AM CDT FRI JUL 01 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...ERN PA...NJ...DE...NRN MD AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 011651Z - 011845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. A WW WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 18Z.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING FROM ERN
NY INTO ERN PA WITHIN A ZONE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AND WEAKENING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY PROMOTED BY BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING AND
CORRIDOR OF DEEP ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO BETWEEN
500-1500 J/KG...AND FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AS THE
SFC-LAYER WARMS. A BELT OF 40 KT WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTRIBUTING TO UP TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR
WHICH SUGGESTS SOME STORMS WILL DEVELOP UPDRAFT ROTATION. MIXED
STORM MODES WITH BOTH MULTICELL AND SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE
EXPECTED AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..DIAL/CORFIDI.. 07/01/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
LWX...
LAT...LON 39287716 41657626 43637558 44007408 43107285 41387319
39377500 39287716SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1, 1:32 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Capitol Planning Region, Northwest Hills Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region | 8 hr |
| Jul 1, 5:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | 84 min | |
| Jul 1, 1:56 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Kent, New Castle, Sussex | 7 hr |
| Jul 1, 5:43 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | New Castle | 92 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in Pennsylvania, 2016Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2016Every mesoscale discussion in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.