Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS San Angelo, TX

428 
WWUS54 KSJT 082027
SVSSJT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TXC431-082045-
/O.CON.KSJT.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-160508T2045Z/
STERLING TX-
327 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR STERLING COUNTY...

AT 327 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF STERLING CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STERLING CITY AROUND 330 PM CDT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 10126 3205 10084 3157 10087 3156 10127
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 235DEG 29KT 3177 10109 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1203 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Expect mainly VFR conditions this afternoon and early evening
across West Central Texas. Stratus will develop during late
evening and early morning morning hours on Monday, with MVFR
ceilings at the terminals between 04Z-14Z, and a few hours of IFR
ceilings at KJCT and KBBD. Also, scattered thunderstorms will
develop this afternoon mainly across western and northern areas
and possibly become more widespread tonight. Keeping the VCTS at
the terminals for now. The winds will continue form the south with
gusts to around 25 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 645 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus may affect southern terminals, KSOA, KJCT and KBBD
through mid morning. Have VCSH at most terminals this morning,
with beginning VCTS late afternoon. Several bands of showers and
thunderstorms will move over tonight, but timing is difficult so
left most stations with VCTS. Otherwise, MVFR stratus returns over
the terminals this evening with the potential for IFR after
midnight for the I-10 corridor.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

.Severe weather possible this afternoon and night...

A dryline will be developing along a Ft. Stockton...Colorado City...
Childress line this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop east of the dryline across the
Big Country...Concho Valley and Crockett county this afternoon. With
GFS MUCAPES of 1500-2000 J/KG and 0-6KM Bulk Shears of 45 to 55 KTS,
some storms could become severe. The dryline is expected to
temporarily retreat west early Sunday evening, then push east
overnight across West Central Texas, as a surface trough moves
through. Severe weather potential will continue overnight. In fact,
the best chance of severe weather may be tonight, as mid/upper
cloudiness and weak low level convergence limit afternoon storm
development. The main weather hazards will be large hail and
damaging winds. Mild temperatures are otherwise in store today, with
highs in the mid 80s and lows tonight in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)

Continued rain chances and a couple of weak cold fronts later in
the long term highlight the long term. On Monday, some showers
and thunderstorms may linger across our eastern counties, during
the morning hours. A surface trough will move east across our
counties on Monday and bring gusty southwest winds. Otherwise,
Monday looks dry, with highs mainly in the 85 to 90 range. Then,
the upper flow becomes more zonal for Tuesday and Tuesday night.
This zonal flow will give West Central Texas about 24 hours of
dry weather. Another weak cold front on Wednesday will stall
somewhere just south of Interstate 20, likely near a Sterling City
to Brownwood line. This boundary may help initiate showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday. For now, will maintain the greatest PoPs
across our southeastern counties; that's where models indicate the
best moisture and low-level convergence will be located. However,
the severe thunderstorm threat for Wednesday looks very low. The
GFS and ECMWF diverge on their respective QPF fields; the GFS
doesn't indicate any on Wednesday, while the ECMWF indicates some
over all our counties. Then, for Wednesday night, these two models
flip; the GFS is wet, and the ECMWF is dry. So, 20 PoPs for
Wednesday night look best for now. Confidence is low regarding the
rain potential continuing into Thursday; thus, 20 PoPs look best
for that period as well. A short-wave ridge aloft develops to our
west late this week. But, models do indicate rain potential, with
a stalled front lingering across our counties into Saturday and
favorable northwest flow aloft. Therefore, will continue slight
chance PoPs for Friday night and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 85  63  86  61 /  30  60  10   0
San Angelo 	 86  64  89  59 /  30  50  10   0
Junction 	 83  66  91  59 /  30  40  10   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-091915-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
203 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL LARGER THAN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
MOST LIKELY THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS
WELL. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND PERHAPS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON.