Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
1102 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Thunderstorm chances will increase overnight as an MCS dives
southeast out of the South Plains. This line should reach KABI
around 08z, weakening as it approaches the southern terminals
after 10z. Expect showers and occasional thunderstorms at all
sites. Convection will taper off from north to south throughout
the day, eventually coming to an end by late afternoon. Ceilings
are expected to develop area wide overnight, with IFR conditions
expected in some areas. Ceilings will improve by midday. Winds
will be from the south and southeast tonight, shifting to the east
and northeast in the wake of the MCS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 634 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings have persist across the Big Country, with scattered
cumuliform clouds across the remainder of the CWA. A few showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few hours south
of KSJT and KBBD, but are not expected to directly affect the
terminal. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms southeast of KLBB
will move slowly southeast, but we continue to watch convection
developing over the Panhandle. This area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to move into the area late tonight and
early Thursday. Thunder was included at several TAF sites for a
few hours as this system moves through. Otherwise, expect MVFR
ceilings developing by late evening, eventually deteriorating to
IFR across much of the area. Ceilings will improve by late
morning, with clouds eventually scattering after 18z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Isolated convection is developing across the western Concho Valley
late this afternoon. This activity is developing south of a weak
differential heating boundary. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening,
mainly south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. A few of the
storms may become severe, owing to a moderately unstable airmass
and sufficient deep layer shear. The main hazards with any of the
storms this evening will be large hail and damaging winds.

For the overnight period, another thunderstorm complex is expected
to develop across the Texas Panhandle later this evening and
move southeast across the area late tonight and early Thursday
morning. This system may pose a large hail and damaging wind
threat for areas north and east of a Sweetwater to Coleman line.
Showers and thunderstorms will linger across southern portions of
the CWA Thursday morning, with additional development across far
southeast sections during the afternoon hours. Maintaining likely
POPs north tonight, with chance POPs for Thursday. Lows tonight
will be mainly in the lower 60s, with highs Thursday in the mid
and upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Friday Night)

Going with mainly a dry forecast through late this week as weak
surface high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures will
be close to normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
with lows in the 50s.

(Saturday through Sunday)

There will be another chance of rain this weekend along with mild
temperatures. Another upper level shortwave will move across
Texas Saturday night and Sunday. Also at the surface, a dryline
will move to near the western part of West Central Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday night
and Sunday, with the best coverage across the eastern half of the
area. Also, a few storms are possible Saturday afternoon across
the northern Edwards Plateau. Highs will be mainly in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

(Sunday Night through Wednesday)

Going with a dry forecast through early next week and then a
slight chance of rain by middle of next week. Also, warmer
temperatures for next week. Aloft, will see zonal flow with little
forcing and a low level thermal ridge will be in place(850 MB
temps 20-24 DEG C) for Monday. As a result, expect dry weather
with very warm temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Another upper level short wave will move by Tuesday
night and Wednesday, along with a dryline moving east across out
area. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Warm temperatures will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 57  75  51  78 /  60  50   5   0
San Angelo 	 62  76  52  80 /  30  40  10   0
Junction 	 62  79  55  79 /  30  40  20   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

Johnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
309 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
309 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE HEARTLAND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SONORA TO MASON LINE. THE MAIN THREATS
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESARY LATE TONIGHT.

24

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1233 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ049-098-113-210615-
JONES TX-FISHER TX-HASKELL TX-
1233 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL...NORTHERN
FISHER AND NORTHERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

AT 1232 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ASPERMONT...OR
13 MILES NORTH OF HAMLIN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAMLIN AROUND 1255 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE TUXEDO...US-
380 NEAR THE HASKELL-STONEWALL COUNTY LINE AND HITSON.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3285 9962 3268 10054 3296 10065 3296 9999
      3329 9999 3331 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0532Z 320DEG 27KT 3308 10016

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1259 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ049-210630-
FISHER TX-
1259 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN FISHER COUNTY UNTIL
130 AM CDT...

AT 1258 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED OVER HOBBS AND
ROTAN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROBY AROUND 115 AM CDT.
  LONGWORTH AROUND 125 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE CAPITOLA...GANNON...
BUSBY AND US-180 NEAR THE FISHER-SCURRY COUNTY LINE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3288 10046 3261 10014 3259 10015 3252 10045
      3272 10066 3277 10066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0558Z 314DEG 29KT 3276 10056

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
134 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

TXZ113-114-127-128-210715-
JONES TX-CALLAHAN TX-TAYLOR TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
134 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN...
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR...SOUTHWESTERN SHACKELFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 215 AM CDT...

AT 132 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HAWLEY AND
LUEDERS...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ANSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 INCH IS ALSO LIKELY.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABILENE AROUND 140 AM CDT.
  HAMBY AROUND 155 AM CDT.
  POTOSI AROUND 210 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE IMPACT...HODGES...TRUBY...
US-283 NEAR THE CALLAHAN-
SHACKELFORD COUNTY LINE...LAKE FORT PHANTOM HILL...FUNSTON...KIRBY LAKE...
THE INTERSECTION OF US-
180 AND FARM ROAD 600 AND BIG COUNTRY BAPTIST ASSEMBLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3269 9997 3289 9961 3254 9927 3232 9975
TIME...MOT...LOC 0632Z 325DEG 31KT 3267 9976