Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
634 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

MVFR ceilings have persist across the Big Country, with scattered
cumuliform clouds across the remainder of the CWA. A few showers
and thunderstorms will be possible over the next few hours south
of KSJT and KBBD, but are not expected to directly affect the
terminal. Farther north, isolated thunderstorms southeast of KLBB
will move slowly southeast, but we continue to watch convection
developing over the Panhandle. This area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to move into the area late tonight and
early Thursday. Thunder was included at several TAF sites for a
few hours as this system moves through. Otherwise, expect MVFR
ceilings developing by late evening, eventually deteriorating to
IFR across much of the area. Ceilings will improve by late
morning, with clouds eventually scattering after 18z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 354 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)

Isolated convection is developing across the western Concho Valley
late this afternoon. This activity is developing south of a weak
differential heating boundary. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop through early evening,
mainly south of a San Angelo to Brownwood line. A few of the
storms may become severe, owing to a moderately unstable airmass
and sufficient deep layer shear. The main hazards with any of the
storms this evening will be large hail and damaging winds.

For the overnight period, another thunderstorm complex is expected
to develop across the Texas Panhandle later this evening and
move southeast across the area late tonight and early Thursday
morning. This system may pose a large hail and damaging wind
threat for areas north and east of a Sweetwater to Coleman line.
Showers and thunderstorms will linger across southern portions of
the CWA Thursday morning, with additional development across far
southeast sections during the afternoon hours. Maintaining likely
POPs north tonight, with chance POPs for Thursday. Lows tonight
will be mainly in the lower 60s, with highs Thursday in the mid
and upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Friday Night)

Going with mainly a dry forecast through late this week as weak
surface high pressure settles over the area. Temperatures will
be close to normal. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s,
with lows in the 50s.

(Saturday through Sunday)

There will be another chance of rain this weekend along with mild
temperatures. Another upper level shortwave will move across
Texas Saturday night and Sunday. Also at the surface, a dryline
will move to near the western part of West Central Texas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday night
and Sunday, with the best coverage across the eastern half of the
area. Also, a few storms are possible Saturday afternoon across
the northern Edwards Plateau. Highs will be mainly in the upper
70s to lower 80s.

(Sunday Night through Wednesday)

Going with a dry forecast through early next week and then a
slight chance of rain by middle of next week. Also, warmer
temperatures for next week. Aloft, will see zonal flow with little
forcing and a low level thermal ridge will be in place(850 MB
temps 20-24 DEG C) for Monday. As a result, expect dry weather
with very warm temperatures. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Another upper level short wave will move by Tuesday
night and Wednesday, along with a dryline moving east across out
area. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon
through Wednesday. Warm temperatures will continue Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 57  75  51  78 /  60  50   5   0
San Angelo 	 62  76  52  80 /  30  40  10   0
Junction 	 62  79  55  79 /  30  40  20   5

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

Johnson

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
309 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212015-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
309 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BIG
COUNTRY AND THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE HEARTLAND TONIGHT. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY...MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SONORA TO MASON LINE. THE MAIN THREATS
ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESARY LATE TONIGHT.

24

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
448 PM CDT WED APR 20 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             7 SSE MERTZON           31.17N 100.78W
04/20/2016  E2.00 INCH       IRION              TX   STORM CHASER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600061

PM