Severe Thunderstorm Warning 214, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this evening with MVFR
ceilings developing mainly after 05Z at the southern terminals.
Scattered thunderstorms developed along a dryline west of the
terminals this afternoon and will continue to move east across
the area through this evening. The storms will increase in
coverage and have VCTS at the terminals with TEMPO groups this
evening. Some storms may be severe. The winds will be from the
south with gusts near 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

..Severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and
tonight...

The atmospheric conditions are becoming favorable for severe
weather this afternoon. at the surface, a dryline was located
near a Matador to Snyder to Iraan line. To the east of the
dryline, strong instability(MLCAPES 2000 to 3000 J/KG) and surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s were evident across West Central Texas.
Aloft, southwest flow was increasing with mid level winds speeds
of 40 to 50 knots. Scattered showers and storms were developing
mainly west of the dryline across the Trans Pecos with is
indicating strong mid level lapse rates. The storms will reach the
west of edge of the strong instability and rapidly become severe
and continue moving east across West Central Texas late this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be very large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Going with likely Pops across
much of the area tonight. Also, localize rainfall amounts of 1 to
1.5 inches are possible tonight, mainly across the southeast part
of the area.

For Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be mainly over the
eastern half of the area during the morning. However, the ECMWF
model is indicating a better coverage of convection across much of
the area, something that will have to be watched. A few storms
will still be possible across the eastern third of the of the area
during the afternoon, near and east of the dryline. Highs will be
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The prolonged period of unsettled weather looks to continue
through the next week, providing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across at least a portion of West Central TX each
day. We will see a brief respite from convective activity Friday
night and early Saturday. A few showers could linger into Friday
night, but should move off to the east as the shortwave trough
axis crosses the region. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the
low/mid 60s.

The flow aloft will become southwesterly once again on Saturday as
a shortwave trough digs over the southwest CONUS. Guidance is
hinting at an embedded disturbance lifting across the Big Bend
during the latter half of the day. This increased forcing for
ascent should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-20. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out, especially over the northwest Hill
Country. Temperatures should be at or just above climo, with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

This southwest trough will hang out to our west, spinning over the
Desert Southwest and northern Mexico basically through the middle
of next week. There does not appear to be any significant air mass
change during this period, suggesting that surface dewpoints will
remain in the 60s. Strong instability will exist each afternoon,
but rain chances will hinge on the strength of the cap, low-level
convergence along the sloshing dryline, and the timing of
shortwave troughs. Timing these individual waves is problematic at
time scales beyond a few days so we'll have to wait for the
details to fall out with time. For now, we're basically looking at
30-50% rain chances any given day through Thursday. The favored
timing looks to be afternoon and overnight, with slower periods
generally early in the day.

Temperatures will run ear to slightly below normal next week, with
overnight lows in the 60s and afternoon temperatures warming into
the mid 80s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  87  63  90 /  60  20   5  20
San Angelo 	 69  92  64  91 /  70  10   5  30
Junction 	 69  89  67  90 /  70  40  10  30

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

99/99/99

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