Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
603 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Mainly VFR conditions are expected this evening with MVFR
ceilings developing mainly after 05Z at the southern terminals.
Scattered thunderstorms developed along a dryline west of the
terminals this afternoon and will continue to move east across
the area through this evening. The storms will increase in
coverage and have VCTS at the terminals with TEMPO groups this
evening. Some storms may be severe. The winds will be from the
south with gusts near 20 knots.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

..Severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and
tonight...

The atmospheric conditions are becoming favorable for severe
weather this afternoon. at the surface, a dryline was located
near a Matador to Snyder to Iraan line. To the east of the
dryline, strong instability(MLCAPES 2000 to 3000 J/KG) and surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s were evident across West Central Texas.
Aloft, southwest flow was increasing with mid level winds speeds
of 40 to 50 knots. Scattered showers and storms were developing
mainly west of the dryline across the Trans Pecos with is
indicating strong mid level lapse rates. The storms will reach the
west of edge of the strong instability and rapidly become severe
and continue moving east across West Central Texas late this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be very large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Going with likely Pops across
much of the area tonight. Also, localize rainfall amounts of 1 to
1.5 inches are possible tonight, mainly across the southeast part
of the area.

For Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be mainly over the
eastern half of the area during the morning. However, the ECMWF
model is indicating a better coverage of convection across much of
the area, something that will have to be watched. A few storms
will still be possible across the eastern third of the of the area
during the afternoon, near and east of the dryline. Highs will be
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

21

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The prolonged period of unsettled weather looks to continue
through the next week, providing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across at least a portion of West Central TX each
day. We will see a brief respite from convective activity Friday
night and early Saturday. A few showers could linger into Friday
night, but should move off to the east as the shortwave trough
axis crosses the region. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the
low/mid 60s.

The flow aloft will become southwesterly once again on Saturday as
a shortwave trough digs over the southwest CONUS. Guidance is
hinting at an embedded disturbance lifting across the Big Bend
during the latter half of the day. This increased forcing for
ascent should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-20. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out, especially over the northwest Hill
Country. Temperatures should be at or just above climo, with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

This southwest trough will hang out to our west, spinning over the
Desert Southwest and northern Mexico basically through the middle
of next week. There does not appear to be any significant air mass
change during this period, suggesting that surface dewpoints will
remain in the 60s. Strong instability will exist each afternoon,
but rain chances will hinge on the strength of the cap, low-level
convergence along the sloshing dryline, and the timing of
shortwave troughs. Timing these individual waves is problematic at
time scales beyond a few days so we'll have to wait for the
details to fall out with time. For now, we're basically looking at
30-50% rain chances any given day through Thursday. The favored
timing looks to be afternoon and overnight, with slower periods
generally early in the day.

Temperatures will run ear to slightly below normal next week, with
overnight lows in the 60s and afternoon temperatures warming into
the mid 80s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  87  63  90 /  60  20   5  20
San Angelo 	 69  92  64  91 /  70  10   5  30
Junction 	 69  89  67  90 /  70  40  10  30

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

99/99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
233 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
233 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
AGAIN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ITS A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN DOWN
THE EXACT TIMES AND LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
600 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ113-114-127-128-262330-
JONES TX-CALLAHAN TX-TAYLOR TX-SHACKELFORD TX-
600 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALLAHAN...
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM
CDT...

AT 600 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER VIEW...OR 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DYESS AFB AROUND 610 PM CDT.
  TYE AROUND 615 PM CDT.
  POTOSI AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  HAMBY AROUND 630 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE IMPACT...LAKE FORT
PHANTOM HILL...KIRBY LAKE AND CAMP TONKAWA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3221 9986 3233 10001 3272 9979 3244 9941
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 224DEG 28KT 3233 9988

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
606 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ065-066-262330-
COKE TX-RUNNELS TX-
606 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL COKE AND NORTHERN
RUNNELS COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 605 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRONTE...OR 7
MILES EAST OF ROBERT LEE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRONTE AROUND 610 PM CDT.
  MAVERICK AROUND 615 PM CDT.
  NORTON AROUND 620 PM CDT.
  WINGATE AROUND 625 PM CDT.
  WINTERS AROUND 630 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE THE INTERSECTION OF
US-277 AND HIGHWAY 70...PUMPHREY...DRASCO AND WILMETH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3182 9983 3179 10041 3196 10047 3209 10002
      3208 9996
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 253DEG 41KT 3190 10036

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
640 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WSW STERLING CITY     31.83N 101.06W
05/26/2016  M61 MPH          STERLING           TX   MESONET

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600209

JOHNSON