Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
308 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Friday)

...Severe thunderstorms possible late this afternoon and
tonight...

The atmospheric conditions are becoming favorable for severe
weather this afternoon. at the surface, a dryline was located
near a Matador to Snyder to Iraan line. To the east of the
dryline, strong instability(MLCAPES 2000 to 3000 J/KG) and surface
dewpoints in the mid 60s were evident across West Central Texas.
Aloft, southwest flow was increasing with mid level winds speeds
of 40 to 50 knots. Scattered showers and storms were developing
mainly west of the dryline across the Trans Pecos with is
indicating strong mid level lapse rates. The storms will reach the
west of edge of the strong instability and rapidly become severe
and continue moving east across West Central Texas late this
afternoon and evening. The main hazards will be very large hail,
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Going with likely Pops across
much of the area tonight. Also, localize rainfall amounts of 1 to
1.5 inches are possible tonight, mainly across the southeast part
of the area.

For Friday, showers and thunderstorms will be mainly over the
eastern half of the area during the morning. However, the ECMWF
model is indicating a better coverage of convection across much of
the area, something that will have to be watched. A few storms
will still be possible across the eastern third of the of the area
during the afternoon, near and east of the dryline. Highs will be
in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

21

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Thursday)

The prolonged period of unsettled weather looks to continue
through the next week, providing a chance for showers and
thunderstorms across at least a portion of West Central TX each
day. We will see a brief respite from convective activity Friday
night and early Saturday. A few showers could linger into Friday
night, but should move off to the east as the shortwave trough
axis crosses the region. Otherwise, expect overnight lows in the
low/mid 60s.

The flow aloft will become southwesterly once again on Saturday as
a shortwave trough digs over the southwest CONUS. Guidance is
hinting at an embedded disturbance lifting across the Big Bend
during the latter half of the day. This increased forcing for
ascent should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-20. A few strong
storms cannot be ruled out, especially over the northwest Hill
Country. Temperatures should be at or just above climo, with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s.

This southwest trough will hang out to our west, spinning over the
Desert Southwest and northern Mexico basically through the middle
of next week. There does not appear to be any significant air mass
change during this period, suggesting that surface dewpoints will
remain in the 60s. Strong instability will exist each afternoon,
but rain chances will hinge on the strength of the cap, low-level
convergence along the sloshing dryline, and the timing of
shortwave troughs. Timing these individual waves is problematic at
time scales beyond a few days so we'll have to wait for the
details to fall out with time. For now, we're basically looking at
30-50% rain chances any given day through Thursday. The favored
timing looks to be afternoon and overnight, with slower periods
generally early in the day.

Temperatures will run ear to slightly below normal next week, with
overnight lows in the 60s and afternoon temperatures warming into
the mid 80s.

Johnson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 68  87  63  90 /  60  20   5  20
San Angelo 	 69  92  64  91 /  70  10   5  30
Junction 	 69  89  67  90 /  70  40  10  30

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.

&&

21/25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
233 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-271945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
233 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...A FEW TORNADOES AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. IN
ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZE FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN
AGAIN FROM THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH ITS A LITTLE EARLY TO PIN DOWN
THE EXACT TIMES AND LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
457 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ076-262245-
CROCKETT TX-
457 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY
UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 457 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTH OF
PANDALE...OR 26 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHEFFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OZONA AROUND 545 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE THE INTERSECTION OF
I-10 AND HIGHWAY 405...THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND HIGHWAY 290...THE
INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 2083 AND HIGHWAY 405 AND THE INTERSECTION
OF HIGHWAY 163 AND RANCH ROAD 1973.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3029 10168 3031 10175 3035 10170 3034 10166
      3040 10169 3042 10174 3044 10172 3046 10173
      3047 10169 3052 10168 3055 10165 3063 10167
      3085 10156 3066 10099 3029 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 2157Z 222DEG 42KT 3035 10160

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
459 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ054-127-262245-
NOLAN TX-TAYLOR TX-
459 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL TAYLOR AND CENTRAL
NOLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 459 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MARYNEAL...OR
15 MILES SOUTH OF ROSCOE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARYNEAL AROUND 505 PM CDT.
  NOLAN AROUND 525 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE LAKE SWEETWATER...CAMP
BOOTHE OAKS...THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 70 AND RANCH ROAD 53...CAMP
BUTMAN AND THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 608 AND HIGHWAY 147.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3221 10002 3211 10059 3225 10067 3228 10066
      3253 10023
TIME...MOT...LOC 2159Z 246DEG 38KT 3223 10056

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
535 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ065-066-262300-
COKE TX-RUNNELS TX-
535 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN COKE AND WESTERN
RUNNELS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TENNYSON...OR
11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROBERT LEE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRONTE AND TENNYSON AROUND 540 PM CDT.
  MAVERICK AROUND 550 PM CDT.
  NORTON AROUND 555 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE BALLINGER LAKE AND US-
277 NEAR THE TOM GREEN-COKE COUNTY LINE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3168 10024 3169 10024 3169 10033 3170 10042
      3186 10044 3198 9989 3165 9987
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 267DEG 32KT 3178 10035

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
542 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND DMG     SAN ANGELO              31.45N 100.45W
05/26/2016                   TOM GREEN          TX   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREE DOWN IN SAN ANGELO. DAMAGED FENCE AND LARGE
            STORAGE SHED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600205

HUBER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
543 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

TXZ071-076-077-262330-
SCHLEICHER TX-CROCKETT TX-IRION TX-
543 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCHLEICHER AND
NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 543 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES WEST OF
OZONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  OZONA AROUND 600 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE US-190 NEAR THE
CROCKETT-SUTTON COUNTY LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF I-10 AND HIGHWAY
405...THE INTERSECTION OF U.S 190 AND HIGHWAY 163...THE INTERSECTION
OF US-190 AND RANCH ROAD 1828 AND THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 163
AND RANCH ROAD 1973.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3068 10151 3112 10120 3093 10073 3070 10094
      3070 10096 3069 10096 3047 10116
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 228DEG 36KT 3067 10137

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
544 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 WSW OZONA             30.68N 101.33W
05/26/2016  E60 MPH          CROCKETT           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH ALONG INTERSTATE 10 NEAR
            MILE MARKER 357.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600206

JOHNSON