Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
554 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
southern part of the area this evening, and then showers and
storms becoming more numerous late tonight into Wednesday morning
as an upper level disturbance moves across. Mainly VFR conditions
through tonight, and then MVFR ceilings for much of the day
for Wednesday at the southern terminals and the morning hours at
the northern terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Currently, we have southwest flow aloft with a large/powerful upper
level low moving southeast into central Mexico. Convection from
overnight thunderstorms has moved off to the east this afternoon. A
remnant outflow boundary laid down by this earlier convection
stretched from west of San Angelo, east/southeast to just south of
Brady, and into southern San Saba County. This boundary could
potentially serve as a focus for thunderstorms to develop on later
this afternoon and evening with continued heating, and lift from the
upper level low moving into the area. Convergence can also be seen
in visible satellite imagery along our eastern CWA border from Brown
Co. northward into Throckmorton Co., and this may also yield
thunderstorm development as heating continues. With plenty of
instability available (ML CAPE of 1000+ J/kg) and 0-6km bulk shear
greater than 60 knots, if thunderstorms do develop, they will have
the potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds
being the main concern. However, any thunderstorms near the
remnant outflow boundary will have the additional potential of a
possible tornado.

Farther west and south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing northwest of Del Rio, into the lower Trans Pecos and
Stockton Plateau as lift from the upper level low begins to spread
northeast into our region.

As large-scale lift and shortwave energy associated with the large
low in Mexico continues to move northeast into our area, additional
showers and thunderstorms are again expected to develop later
tonight. While most of the activity is expected to remain below
severe levels tonight, an isolated wind gust near 60 mph, or
hail near an inch can't be ruled out.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Friday Night)

..Rain Potential Continues...

The potential for additional rain will continue into Friday night.
Models move the upper low from a position approximately 500 miles
south of the Big Bend Wednesday night to nearly over Houston by
sunrise Saturday morning. Plus, the cold front will continue to
produce winds from the north across West Central Texas through
Friday night, as the surface low remains south of our counties
during these periods. The threat of severe weather looks low, for
our counties, during these periods. Although thunderstorms remain
possible, the primary precipitation mode will be showers. For
these five periods, additional rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2
inches range, still looks like a reasonable estimate. Although
flash flooding isn't a major concern, we'll be watching closely
for possible isolated pockets of flash flooding.

(Saturday through Monday)

..Dry Conditions with Afternoon Highs Above Seasonal Normals...

After the current system moves farther east, dry conditions will
return to West Central Texas, and temperatures will rebound. As
the surface low moves east, surface winds from the south will
return to West Central Texas on Saturday. With lots of sunshine
Saturday, along with a down-slope component to the surface winds,
afternoon highs will likely be in the 70 to 75 range. For Sunday
and Monday, the continuing warming trend will help produce
afternoon highs in the 75 to 80 range and the 80 to 85 range,
respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 53  66  50  63 /  60  60  40  50
San Angelo 	 50  69  49  62 /  70  60  50  60
Junction 	 54  72  48  64 /  90  50  40  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
314 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-092115-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
314 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF A
SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>