Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service SAN ANGELO TX
554 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across mainly the
southern part of the area this evening, and then showers and
storms becoming more numerous late tonight into Wednesday morning
as an upper level disturbance moves across. Mainly VFR conditions
through tonight, and then MVFR ceilings for much of the day
for Wednesday at the southern terminals and the morning hours at
the northern terminals.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Wednesday)

Currently, we have southwest flow aloft with a large/powerful upper
level low moving southeast into central Mexico. Convection from
overnight thunderstorms has moved off to the east this afternoon. A
remnant outflow boundary laid down by this earlier convection
stretched from west of San Angelo, east/southeast to just south of
Brady, and into southern San Saba County. This boundary could
potentially serve as a focus for thunderstorms to develop on later
this afternoon and evening with continued heating, and lift from the
upper level low moving into the area. Convergence can also be seen
in visible satellite imagery along our eastern CWA border from Brown
Co. northward into Throckmorton Co., and this may also yield
thunderstorm development as heating continues. With plenty of
instability available (ML CAPE of 1000+ J/kg) and 0-6km bulk shear
greater than 60 knots, if thunderstorms do develop, they will have
the potential to become severe with large hail and damaging winds
being the main concern. However, any thunderstorms near the
remnant outflow boundary will have the additional potential of a
possible tornado.

Farther west and south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are
developing northwest of Del Rio, into the lower Trans Pecos and
Stockton Plateau as lift from the upper level low begins to spread
northeast into our region.

As large-scale lift and shortwave energy associated with the large
low in Mexico continues to move northeast into our area, additional
showers and thunderstorms are again expected to develop later
tonight. While most of the activity is expected to remain below
severe levels tonight, an isolated wind gust near 60 mph, or
hail near an inch can't be ruled out.

20

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Friday Night)

..Rain Potential Continues...

The potential for additional rain will continue into Friday night.
Models move the upper low from a position approximately 500 miles
south of the Big Bend Wednesday night to nearly over Houston by
sunrise Saturday morning. Plus, the cold front will continue to
produce winds from the north across West Central Texas through
Friday night, as the surface low remains south of our counties
during these periods. The threat of severe weather looks low, for
our counties, during these periods. Although thunderstorms remain
possible, the primary precipitation mode will be showers. For
these five periods, additional rainfall amounts in the 1 to 2
inches range, still looks like a reasonable estimate. Although
flash flooding isn't a major concern, we'll be watching closely
for possible isolated pockets of flash flooding.

(Saturday through Monday)

..Dry Conditions with Afternoon Highs Above Seasonal Normals...

After the current system moves farther east, dry conditions will
return to West Central Texas, and temperatures will rebound. As
the surface low moves east, surface winds from the south will
return to West Central Texas on Saturday. With lots of sunshine
Saturday, along with a down-slope component to the surface winds,
afternoon highs will likely be in the 70 to 75 range. For Sunday
and Monday, the continuing warming trend will help produce
afternoon highs in the 75 to 80 range and the 80 to 85 range,
respectively.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 53  66  50  63 /  60  60  40  50
San Angelo 	 50  69  49  62 /  70  60  50  60
Junction 	 54  72  48  64 /  90  50  40  60

&&

.SJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
314 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-092115-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
314 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF A
SWEETWATER TO OZONA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
405 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ071-082230-
IRION TX-
405 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN TOM GREEN...EASTERN IRION
AND NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CST...

AT 405 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARDEN TO NEAR MERTZON TO 9
MILES EAST OF BARNHART...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MERTZON AROUND 410 PM CST.
  SHERWOOD AROUND 420 PM CST.
  ARDEN AROUND 430 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE US-
67 NEAR THE IRION-TOM GREEN COUNTY LINE.

LAT...LON 3108 10116 3136 10110 3152 10069 3109 10069
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 221DEG 20KT 3126 10090 3123 10085 3112 10101

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
432 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ071-076-082300-
CROCKETT TX-IRION TX-
432 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCHLEICHER...
NORTHWESTERN TOM GREEN...IRION AND NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTIES
UNTIL 500 PM CST...

AT 432 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF BARNHART TO 8 MILES WEST OF
OZONA...AND MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN
SCHLEICHER...NORTHWESTERN TOM GREEN...IRION AND NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE INTERSECTION OF U.S
190 AND HIGHWAY 163.

LAT...LON 3081 10153 3108 10135 3108 10127 3118 10128
      3148 10107 3148 10069 3120 10079 3108 10096
      3064 10122
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 199DEG 26KT 3119 10103 3076 10134

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
446 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ078-082315-
SUTTON TX-
446 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SUTTON COUNTY UNTIL
515 PM CST...

AT 446 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTH OF
SONORA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN SUTTON
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS: THE INTERSECTION OF US-277
AND RANCH ROAD 189 AND US-277 NEAR THE SUTTON-EDWARDS COUNTY LINE.

LAT...LON 3029 10053 3029 10084 3057 10072 3049 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 208DEG 28KT 3032 10071

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
551 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ064-090015-
STERLING TX-
551 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN COKE...STERLING AND
NORTHWESTERN TOM GREEN COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CST...

AT 551 PM CST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR STERLING
CITY...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  STERLING CITY AROUND 600 PM CST.

LAT...LON 3195 10126 3208 10082 3170 10085 3156 10122
      3156 10126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 177DEG 21KT 3180 10103

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
633 PM CST TUE MAR 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0629 PM     HAIL             10 NW MENARD            31.02N  99.91W
03/08/2016  E0.88 INCH       MENARD             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SJT1600014

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
634 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

TXZ073-154-168-170-090100-
MCCULLOCH TX-CONCHO TX-MASON TX-MENARD TX-
634 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MENARD...NORTHWESTERN MASON...
SOUTHERN CONCHO AND SOUTHERN MCCULLOCH COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CST...

AT 634 PM CST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT MCKAVETT TO NEAR
HEXT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HEXT AROUND 640 PM CST.
  EDEN AROUND 700 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE LIVE OAK...US-
190 NEAR THE MENARD-MCCULLOCH COUNTY LINE...US-83 NEAR THE MENARD-
CONCHO COUNTY LINE...THE INTERSECTION OF US-
190 AND RANCH ROAD 1311 AND THE INTERSECTION OF US-83 AND HIGHWAY 29.

LAT...LON 3092 10011 3124 10011 3113 9912 3076 9959
TIME...MOT...LOC 0034Z 236DEG 28KT 3101 10001 3085 9948