Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1252 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Isolated showers have developed across portions of northeast TX
and southwest AR, though within drier air. Do not expect much /if
at all/ in the way of precipitation, but have adjusted the
forecast to reflect this trend, with the showers tapering off in
the next few hours. Focus for severe thunderstorm potential
remains across portions of Deep East TX northeast towards
southwest AR and locales eastward later this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1203 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

AVIATION... Scattered convection mainly south of I-20, has
increased as a warm front to the south advances nwd into the area.
 These storms continuing since early this am near the KLFK
terminal, are skirting just south of KSHV terminal, and gradually
advancing towards the KMLU terminal. A cold front will also move
across ne TX this aftn and likely a squall line to develop around
30/00z affecting mainly KMLU and KELD terminals this eve but
possibly briefly affect KSHV and KLFK near 30/00z. Stgr cells this
 aftn may contain hail and gusty winds over 40 kts, with possible
straight line winds with storms invok cold front this eve. Overall
 svr threat to progress later in day with tornadic potential over
eastern cwa. Lgt to sw winds around 10 kts expected this aftn.
Most sites outside of convection are vfr with mid lvl cloud decks
except for KMLU terminal where some ocnl IFR cigs and lowered
vsbys have persisted beyond mrng. Skies becmg vfr skc later
tonight and continue thru end of fcst period with frontal w-nw
winds around 10 kts after 30/13z./VII/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 425 AM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The dryline that ushered in active weather yesterday has stalled
and will washout later today. The upper level low to the west will
push a cold front through later today with a warm front moving
northeast ahead of the front. Expect an increase in clouds today
which will keep temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the upper
40s to lower 50s. The low level moisture along with warmer
temperatures could allow east texas and central Louisiana areas
to see severe weather later today, mainly hail and wind. The cold
front will move out early Wednesday morning with cool drier air
behind the front with surface high pressure providing subsidence
and cooler conditions during the early morning and overnight
hours. We will provide graphics about the severe weather this
morning showing the areas in the slight risk.

The next weather maker will be another trough of low pressure out
of the Pacific northwest that will move into southwestern US. The
GFS and Euro show the trough moving into the area on Saturday
with overrunning ahead of the front. The difference in the models
are in the timing of the rain ending the EURO moves the rain out
early monday while the GFS keeps the overrunning conditions into
Tuesday and early Wednesday.

21

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  45  62  36  63 /  20  10   0   0
MLU  49  63  34  62 /  50  10   0   0
DEQ  36  57  29  60 /  10   0   0   0
TXK  42  60  35  60 /  10  10   0   0
ELD  42  61  32  60 /  20  10   0   0
TYR  43  62  37  64 /  10  10   0   0
GGG  43  62  35  64 /  10  10   0   0
LFK  45  66  35  65 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

29/07/21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
121 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-010-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165-301930-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-DE SOTO-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-
MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-
SHELBY-ANGELINA-
121 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF DEEP
EAST TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. ANY STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

RAIN WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
LASTING UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

LAZ005-006-011>014-017>022-TXZ166-167-301930-
LINCOLN-UNION-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-SAN AUGUSTINE-
121 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA TO ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS DUE TO A NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY
LATE THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

RAIN WILL RETURN LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
LASTING UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1156 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

LAZ005-011>013-018-291845-
BIENVILLE LA-LINCOLN LA-NATCHITOCHES LA-RED RIVER LA-JACKSON LA-
1156 AM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN JACKSON...NORTHEASTERN
RED RIVER...NORTH CENTRAL NATCHITOCHES...EASTERN BIENVILLE AND
SOUTHWESTERN LINCOLN PARISHES UNTIL 1245 PM CST...

AT 1156 AM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES NORTHEAST OF COUSHATTA...OR 24 MILES WEST OF JONESBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
JONESBORO...ARCADIA...MARTIN...HODGE...NORTH HODGE...EAST HODGE...
SALINE...LUCKY...ASHLAND...CASTOR...BIENVILLE...QUITMAN...
BRYCELAND...BRICE...FRIENDSHIP...LIBERTY HILL AND CHESTNUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT.

&&

LAT...LON 3214 9278 3215 9293 3210 9291 3200 9317
      3212 9326 3257 9292 3227 9244
TIME...MOT...LOC 1756Z 229DEG 37KT 3212 9311

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 AM     HAIL             1 NNE BURKE             31.24N  94.77W
11/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       ANGELINA           TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC POST PHOTO OF HAIL ON KTRE-TV FACEBOOK PAGE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600699

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
114 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

LAZ006-292000-
UNION LA-
114 PM CST TUE NOV 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN UNION PARISH UNTIL 200 PM
CST...

AT 113 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
FARMERVILLE...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLAIBORNE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 50 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FARMERVILLE...MARION...BAYOU D ARBONNE LAKE...ROCKY BRANCH...
SPENCER...HAILE...LINVILLE AND LITROE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO
STATIONS AND AVAILABLE TELEVISION STATIONS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN SHREVEPORT.

&&

LAT...LON 3259 9232 3266 9242 3267 9242 3267 9243
      3271 9249 3301 9218 3301 9207 3298 9208
      3297 9207 3297 9208 3292 9207 3287 9208
      3284 9206 3283 9207 3280 9205 3276 9206
      3274 9205
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 226DEG 41KT 3271 9233

20