Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 30/00Z TAFS...ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST ONCE AGAIN WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...INCLUDING OCCASIONAL
SEVERE TSTMS...ARE AFFECTING MOST TERMINALS IN E TX NORTH OF
I-20/SRN AR/SE OK. SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS ONGOING
FARTHER SOUTH OF I-20 IN E TX. STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WILL AFFECT
ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE. A MORE SOLID LINE OF TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AFTER 30/06Z
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND SHOULD BE MOVING EAST OF THE
REGION AFTER 30/21Z. A FEW LINGERING TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 01/00Z.

/09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MULTI-THREAT EVENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION...AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...TWO SEPARATE HEAVY RAINFALL AXES HAVE SET
UP...ONE OVER OUR NE TX COUNTIES FROM NEAR TYLER TO DEKALB...AND
ANOTHER ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD THROUGH NEAR EL
DORADO. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING EWD
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT EWD THROUGH THE EVENT. HAVE ADDED THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA TO
THE FF WATCH...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS WILL NOT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
CHANGES TO THE EXPIRATION TIME...SETTING MUCH OF THE WATCH TO
EXPIRE AT 00Z SUNDAY. ALLOWED THE EXTREME SERN PORTIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUN. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW...AS THE SFC
LOW LIFTS NEWD...AND THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH
THAT. RAIN LOOKS TO FINALLY DIMINISH/END SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TEMPS LOOK TO RUN COOLER IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS WE MOVE
INTO MONDAY.

MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT AS WE MOVE ON TO OUR NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
W AS THE STALLED FRONT MOVES BACK NWD AND ACTS AS A FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT. ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY
LIKELY...AND WE MAY SEE MORE FLASH FLOODING/RIVER FLOODING AS A
RESULT.

DESPITE THIS BETTER AGREEMENT...MODELS DIVERGE AGAIN FOR THE MID
PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE FINAL KICKER TROF. HOWEVER...ATTM
IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL SEE AN END OF PRECIP BY TUE NIGHT AS A
FINALLY PUSH OF DRY AIR FILTERS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUR TREND OF COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
END OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  82  67  82 /  90  70  50  20
MLU  70  81  68  83 /  70  70  70  30
DEQ  66  78  58  81 /  90  50  20  10
TXK  68  80  62  82 /  90  70  30  10
ELD  69  80  65  83 /  90  70  50  20
TYR  68  82  63  81 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  69  83  65  82 /  90  70  30  10
LFK  70  81  69  82 /  90  70  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-301700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-
1152 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167-301700-
LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-
WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1152 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM THE TOLEDO BEND DAM TO MONROE LOUISIANA. THIS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...ALL OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
800 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TORNADO          LINDALE                 32.51N  95.41W
04/29/2016                   SMITH              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 INJ *** NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600411

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
805 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALTO                    31.65N  95.07W
04/29/2016                   CHEROKEE           TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAS BEEN RECEIVED NEAR
            ALTO. A BARN WAS BLOWN OVER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600412

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
815 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PITTSBURG               33.00N  94.97W
04/29/2016  M5.59 INCH       CAMP               TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600413

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
832 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLASH FLOOD      QUITMAN                 32.80N  95.44W
04/29/2016                   WOOD               TX   911 CALL CENTER

            AREA WIDE FLOODING OF ROADWAYS

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600414

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
840 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 N HAWKINS             32.72N  95.20W
04/29/2016                   WOOD               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN...POWER LINES DOWN...NUMEROUS HOMES
            DAMAGED

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600415

21

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
841 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

TXZ152-153-165-166-300230-
SAN AUGUSTINE TX-ANGELINA TX-NACOGDOCHES TX-SHELBY TX-
841 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL ANGELINA...SAN
AUGUSTINE...SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES AND SHELBY COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...

AT 841 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
ETOILE...OR 15 MILES NORTHEAST OF LUFKIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 85 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUFKIN...CENTER...HUNTINGTON...SAN AUGUSTINE...NEUVILLE...ETOILE...
SHELBYVILLE...BLAND LAKE...WODEN...MACUNE...MARTINSVILLE...PATROON...
MELROSE...CHIRENO...HUXLEY...BROADDUS...OAK RIDGE...JERICHO...HOMER AND
HURSTOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 9480 3195 9408 3172 9381 3171 9382
      3170 9380 3167 9381 3167 9383 3162 9382
      3161 9384 3159 9384 3161 9390 3157 9398
      3147 9398 3145 9400 3115 9449
TIME...MOT...LOC 0141Z 223DEG 74KT 3143 9449

19