River Flood Warning 108, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
405 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERE CONVECTION WINDING DOWN AND WITH IT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5 AM THIS
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK SLIGHTLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE TX AND MCCURTAIN COUNTY IN SE OK WITH THIS PACKAGE.
WHILE THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE COMING TO AN END LATER THIS MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR INTO MORE OF NE TX AND NW LA...PRESENT
FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING ACROSS NE TX AND SW
AR WILL PRECLUDE ME REMOVING MORE COUNTIES FROM THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME EVEN THOUGH QPF AMOUNTS REALLY DO NOT WARRANT
IT.

THE SLIGHT RISK OF ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LFK TO SHV TO
LZK WILL BE GREATLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OUR AREA
EXPERIENCES TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WIDESPREAD EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLING UP NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS NE TX...NW LA
AND SW AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON EVENING WITH SOME DESCENT AIRMASS
MODIFICATION POSSIBLE. THE GFS IS INDICATIVE OF THIS AS WELL SO
WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND NOTHING LIKE OUR
AREA HAS SEEN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.

MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THIS RAINFALL LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE WE LOOK UPSTREAM ONCE AGAIN
AS DISTURBANCES MOVE OUR WAY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE TX
HILL COUNTRY. ALL THIS TO SAY ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA UNLIKE THIS CURRENT EVENT
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORRIDOR.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THIS PERSISTENT WET PATTERN APPEARS TO
BREAKDOWN BY MID WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OF OUR THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISS VALLEY AND
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING TAKING SHAPE OUT WEST. THIS WILL USHER IN
SOME MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN WED NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH AN APPARENT OMEGA BLOCK TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY WITH FLANKING TROUGHS
EITHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  65  84  63 /  60  30  20  60
MLU  82  66  85  65 / 100  50  30  60
DEQ  81  56  80  57 /  30  10  10  60
TXK  81  59  82  59 /  40  20  10  60
ELD  81  62  83  60 /  90  40  20  60
TYR  82  60  81  61 /  30  10  20  60
GGG  84  63  83  62 /  30  20  20  60
LFK  86  67  84  67 /  70  30  50  60

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>004.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ005-006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
     151.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ152-153-165>167.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
539 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-301800-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
539 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

WHILE RAINFALL WILL BE TAPERING OFF THIS MORNING...THERE IS A
SMALL POSSIBILITY OF REDEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL NOT RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS. WHILE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS
ENDED...RUNOFF IS LIKELY INCOMPLETE. MANY ROADWAYS REMAIN FLOODED
AND CLOSED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY
OR TONIGHT.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>004-006-TXZ097-112-126-138-
151>153-165-166-301800-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-BOWIE-CASS-MARION-
HARRISON-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
539 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE TAPERING OFF AS WE GO
THROUGH THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AS WELL AS THE
LOWER TOLEDO BEND AND SAM RAYBURN COUNTRY OF DEEP EAST TEXAS.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SAME AREA AS
WELL WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE MORE WIDELY SCATTERED
IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS COULD BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN LATER
TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LAZ005-010>014-017>022-TXZ167-301800-
LINCOLN-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
539 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND EAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES...
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL BE CONTINUING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE
TO THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD BE
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND NOT AS WIDESPREAD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION
LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF YET ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. SOME HEAVY RAIN AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GO
THROUGH THE DAY.

13

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
615 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LAZ017-TXZ167-301200-
SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
615 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL SABINE PARISH IN
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL SABINE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM
CDT...

AT 614 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
HEMPHILL...OR 18 MILES NORTHWEST OF TOLEDO BEND DAM...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MILAM...MANY...HEMPHILL...FLORIEN...FISHER...COLUMBUS...YELLOWPINE AND
NEGREET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...AND EASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 3122 9382 3140 9392 3162 9353 3140 9338
TIME...MOT...LOC 1114Z 236DEG 23KT 3134 9381

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 AM     FLASH FLOOD      VIVIAN                  32.87N  93.99W
04/30/2016                   CADDO              LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS ROADS ACROSS NORTHERN CADDO PARISH WERE
            FLOODED AND CLOSED. SEVERAL CARS STALLED IN HIGH WATER
            AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
            PARISH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600461

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
624 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PLAIN DEALING           32.91N  93.70W
04/30/2016                   BOSSIER            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A MUDSLIDE BRIEFLY CLOSED A PORTION OF THE 1200 BLOCK
            OF HIGHWAY 2 NEAR THE PLAIN DEALING CIVIC CENTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600462

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
628 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N PLAIN DEALING       32.94N  93.70W
04/30/2016                   BOSSIER            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER WAS OVER THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 3 AND
            537 NORTH OF PLAIN DEALING. HIGH WATER ALSO COVERED A
            PORTION OF OLD PLAIN DEALING ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600463

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
734 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW BOGATA            33.45N  95.27W
04/29/2016                   RED RIVER          TX   TXDOT

            FM ROAD 410 CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600464

20