Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1149 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.AVIATION...
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER N NM TO EJECT NE
INTO THE CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROUGH TO PROVIDE
NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS. IN STRONG
TSTMS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL.  /VIII./

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX SITUATION CONTINUES TO SET UP FOR OUR REGION TODAY. BAND
OF STRONG STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED
ROUGHLY ALONG THE RED RIVER OF NE TX/SE OK EWD INTO SRN AR. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. FURTHER S IN THE WARM
SECTOR...INSTABILITY-DRIVEN PULSE-SEVERE STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS E TX/N LA. INSTABILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE IN THE WARM
SECTOR TODAY...AS THE UPPER LOW INCHES EWD TODAY/TONIGHT. AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG AND E OF THE
ADVANCING DRYLINE IS EXPECTED ALONG OR JUST E OF I-35 THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS...STORMS SHOULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
AND WILL ADVANCE EWD INTO OUR REGION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EWD. IN ADDITION...UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC FRONT AS IT MERGES WITH
THE DRYLINE THIS EVENING...WHICH MAY ADD FLASH FLOODING TO OUR
LIST OF POSSIBLE THREATS. WILL EVALUATE THE NEED FOR THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER S FOR THIS POSSIBILITY WITH
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

FOR THE UPDATE...HAVE ONLY MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX TO
COVER THE WARM-SECTOR PULSE CONVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST
LOOKS TO BE REASONABLY ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED ATTM. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  67  82  64  86 /  90  70  50  10
MLU  68  84  66  84 /  90  70  70  30
DEQ  64  82  56  82 /  90  40  20  10
TXK  66  82  60  84 /  90  50  30  10
ELD  67  80  63  85 /  90  70  50  10
TYR  67  84  61  85 /  90  50  20  10
GGG  67  82  62  85 /  90  50  30  10
LFK  68  82  66  86 /  90  70  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-
     010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1152 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-301700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-
1152 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THESE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167-301700-
LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-
WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1152 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM THE TOLEDO BEND DAM TO MONROE LOUISIANA. THIS SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL TRANSITION INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATER THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AS STORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...ALL OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1229 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1205 PM     HAIL             4 WSW TYLER             32.31N 95.36W
04/29/2016  E1.00 INCH       SMITH              TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PICTURE OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG SPUR 364
            TWEETED TO TYLER MEDIA.

&&

PALMER

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