Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
314 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED FCST TO SAY THE LEAST TODAY WITH A FLASH FLOOD AND
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. WITH STRONG/
SEVERE CONVECTION ALREADY ONGOING...WILL BE BRIEF WITH THIS
DISCUSSION.

CONVECTION THIS MORNING FIRING AS A RESULT OF A DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS N TX INTO S OK. THIS
CONVECTION IS ELEVATED AND ORIENTED JUST NORTH OF A RETURNING
WARM FRONT AT THE SURFACE. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THIS RETURNING WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
WINDS TODAY THUS HAVE POSTED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WITH THIS
PACKAGE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING.
CONVECTION MAY BECOME MORE SFC BASED AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING/
DAYTIME HOURS WITH THE GREATEST THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
JUST NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF NE TX AND N LA WHICH INCLUDES
THE NORTHERN THIRD OF NE TX...SE OK AND SW AR. ASSUMING THIS
CONVECTION BECOMES MORE NUMEROUS LATER THIS MORNING...THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT SHOULD RAMP UP ACROSS THIS SAME REGION... BASICALLY
WHERE THE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH RESIDES. AM GETTING MORE
CONCERNED OF A SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT WHICH SHOULD FIRE UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-35/I-45 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN IN
RESPONSE TO YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVING THIS WAY IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE ALL POINTING AT THIS CONVECTION MOVING
RAPIDLY EAST NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO OUR
REGION LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...BUT THE KEY POINT IS THAT IT WILL
BE MOVING WITH NO REAL TRAINING THREAT THAT I CAN SEE...HENCE THE
LACK OF ANY SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PER WPC SOUTH OF THE
EXISTING AREA FURTHER NORTH. ALL THIS TO SAY WILL NOT BE MAKING
ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FFA TODAY WITH THE OPTION BEING TO
EXPAND IT FURTHER SOUTH FOR TONIGHT IF A HEAVIER/TRAINING EVENT
BECOMES APPARENT. THAT WILL AVOID THE SEGMENTED FFA AREA CONFUSION
OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT NORTH TODAY...AND MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT END FOR SATURDAY
BUT INSTEAD...SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY...ENCOMPASSING MORE OF S AR AND
N LA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE
NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SAT AFTN. WE WILL BE WORKED
OVER PRETTY WELL FROM LATE NIGHT/MORNING CONVECTION SO AFTERNOON
DESTABILIZATION WILL PLAY A BIG KEY TO THE SVR/HEAVY RAIN THREAT
DURING THE DAY SAT BEFORE TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT.

MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGES TO SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK DUE TO TIME
RESTRAINTS GIVEN THE CURRENT CONVECTION. THANKS FOR THE
COORDINATION THIS MORNING FWD...JAN. PRELIMS TO FOLLOW.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  67  82  64 /  50  90  70  50
MLU  87  68  84  66 /  40  90  70  70
DEQ  76  64  82  56 /  90  90  40  20
TXK  82  66  82  60 /  80  90  50  30
ELD  82  67  80  63 /  80  90  70  50
TYR  86  67  84  61 /  70  90  50  20
GGG  86  67  82  62 /  60  90  50  30
LFK  90  68  82  66 /  30  90  70  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-070.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ001-002-010-011-017-018.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-
     165>167.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     MORNING FOR TXZ096-097.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
349 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

ARZ050-051-059>061-070-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-291800-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-MCCURTAIN-
RED RIVER-BOWIE-
349 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THESE STORMS WILL
PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

ARZ071>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167-291800-
LAFAYETTE-COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-
WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-
UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
349 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM LUFKIN TEXAS TO MONROE
LOUISIANA. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND TRANSITION
INTO A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION AS WELL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. THIS WILL INCLUDE MOST OF SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...ALL OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF
NORTHEAST TEXAS. THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END LATE
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
432 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 AM     HAIL             DE QUEEN                34.04N  94.34W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       SEVIER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600402

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
441 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 AM     HAIL             DE QUEEN                34.04N  94.34W
04/29/2016  M2.00 INCH       SEVIER             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600403

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
502 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

OKZ077-291045-
MCCURTAIN OK-
502 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MCCURTAIN COUNTY
UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 502 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF OCTAVIA...OR 23 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MENA...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WATSON...PLUNKETVILLE AND SMITHVILLE.

LAT...LON 3425 9447 3420 9448 3449 9485 3451 9484
      3451 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1002Z 199DEG 24KT 3445 9462

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
505 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     HAIL             WINTHROP                33.83N  94.35W
04/29/2016  E2.00 INCH       LITTLE RIVER       AR   PUBLIC

            PHOTO OF LARGE HAIL SENT TO KSLA-TV FROM PUBLIC.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600404

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
519 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 AM     HAIL             2 W WINTHROP            33.84N  94.39W
04/29/2016  E1.75 INCH       LITTLE RIVER       AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTS GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL IN THE CROSS ROADS
            COMMUNITY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600405

20

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
552 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0533 AM     HAIL             3 N HOPE                33.71N  93.59W
04/29/2016  E0.88 INCH       HEMPSTEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NORTH OF HOPE ALONG HWY. 195.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1600406

13