Alert archive / Kansas / Special Weather Statements in 2016

Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

December 25, 2016Cherokee County, Crawford County, Kansas

NWS Springfield, MO issued this special weather statement at Dec 25, 2016, 7:02 PM CST for Cherokee County, Crawford County, Kansas. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Dec 25, 2016, 7:02 PM CST (01:02 UTC)
Expired: Dec 25, 2016, 7:45 PM CST
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO

Counties Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 114 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.0 hours before the alert went out and 90 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 60 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -45 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 572 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 519 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 565 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Dec 25, 5:42 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 25, 5:42 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
542 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

We have seen quite the transition in weather across the Missouri
Ozarks over the last 12 hours as a warm front continues to lift
northeast across the area. South of the front, temperatures have
warmed to around 70 degrees in the Joplin area with dew points
around 60 degrees. North and east of the front, temperatures were
in the upper 50s around West Plains and Rolla with patchy fog
continuing.

That warm front will continue to lift northeast this evening as
strong surface low pressure tracks northeast into the eastern
Dakotas. A trailing surface front/trough will be the focus of a
thin line of showers and a few isolated thunderstorms this
evening and overnight as this feature tracks east across the
area. This line of shallow convection has actually been ongoing
for the entire day off to our west.

We continue to believe that there will be a threat for isolated
damaging wind gusts across western Missouri and southeastern
Kansas with any small bowing structures. We will be closely
monitoring radar trends across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma as
short term model guidance is trending upward with instability. If
we begin to see more in the way of robust updrafts to our west, an
increase in the severe threat may be warranted.

That thin line of convection will then push out of south-central
Missouri around, or shortly after daybreak. Dry weather is then
expected for the remainder of Monday with temperatures remaining
mild. We have gone on the high side of guidance with highs
expected to reach the lower to middle 60s over most areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

We will see a secondary cold front push through the area Monday
night which will bring in slightly cooler temperatures for
Tuesday. However, we are still looking at highs remaining above
normal in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Dry weather will continue
through through at least Tuesday as weak high pressure settles
over the region.

A few models then bring a very weak short wave trough through the
area from Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is an outside shot
at a rain shower or two across far southern Missouri, however
moisture quality and lift look fairly minimal.

There is then a general model consensus that the upper level flow
will become more amplified towards the end of the week with a
northwesterly flow setting up across the eastern half of the
United States. This should lead to a cooling trend as we look to
finish off the year. Global models indicate that the southern
branch of the upper level jet may become a bit more active as we
get into next weekend. This will be something to watch as it may
represent our next decent shot at precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 533 PM CST Sun Dec 25 2016

KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: Rain/drizzle/showers are occurring with
gusty south winds ahead of a sfc/trough over eastern KS/OK. A line
of forced showers is occurring with the trough and will pass
through the region over the next few hours. Some enhanced wind
gusts may occur with somewhat deeper/heavier showers. Expect
generally mvfr/vfr ceilings ahead of the line, then vfr
conditions once the showers clear off to the east.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for MOZ066-077-088-093-
     101.

KS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...DSA

Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 25, 12:46 PM CST, 6 hours 16 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1246 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  LIMITED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  LIMITED LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MILES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
  WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 49 CORRIDOR AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
  STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

  A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
  OR TWO WILL PUSH FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
  AREA FROM THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WIND GUSTS
  OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LINE. ISOLATED DAMAGING
  WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
  GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THESE
  STRONGER WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SMALL BOWING
  SEGMENTS WITHIN THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF/SITREP(ALL LOWERCASE)

THIS PRODUCT IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

SCHAUMANN

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 25, 5:56 PM CST, 1 hour 6 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

KSZ073-097-101-260045-
Crawford KS-Cherokee KS-Bourbon KS-
556 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CRAWFORD...BOURBON AND
WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CST...

At 551 PM CST, trained weather spotters and wind gauges indicated a
line of rain showers producing gusty winds from near Kincaid to near
Erie to 7 miles west of Edna. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected with this line of showers.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Scott...                     Girard...
Marmaton...                       Sherman...
Mccune...                         Bronson...
Uniontown...                      Walnut...
West Mineral...                   Fulton...
Redfield...                       Hepler...
Mapleton...                       Petersburg...
Hallowell...                      Porterville...
Greenbush...                      Devon...
Brazilton...                      Pawnee Station...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely. Listen for possible warnings
and be prepared to take appropriate action should severe weather
threaten.

&&

LAT...LON 3803 9508 3804 9465 3765 9477 3700 9502
      3700 9507 3750 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 2351Z 250DEG 25KT 3805 9512 3754 9529 3702 9549

Schaumann

Special weather statement, Dec 25, 7:02 PM CST, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
702 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

KSZ097-101-MOZ066-077-088-260145-
Crawford KS-Cherokee KS-Jasper MO-Barton MO-Vernon MO-
702 PM CST SUN DEC 25 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE...
SOUTHWESTERN VERNON...WESTERN JASPER AND WESTERN BARTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 745 PM CST...

At 700 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking showers producing gusty
winds along a line extending from near Girard to Cherokee to near
Treece. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected with this line of showers.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Joplin...            Pittsburg...
Prairie State Park...             Carl Junction...
Baxter Springs...                 Frontenac...
Columbus...                       Galena...
Girard...                         Oronogo...
Arma...                           Liberal...
Cherokee...                       Airport Drive...
Weir...                           Lowell...
Mulberry...                       Scammon...
Chicopee...                       Nashville...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely. Listen for possible warnings
and be prepared to take appropriate action should severe weather
threaten.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 9490 3758 9488 3777 9438 3744 9436
      3705 9455 3706 9461 3700 9462 3700 9502
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 252DEG 25KT 3753 9479 3734 9478 3700 9495

Schaumann

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Dec 25, 7:21 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton, Jasper	24 min
Dec 25, 7:44 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton	19 min
Dec 25, 9:03 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Lawrence	42 min
Dec 25, 9:10 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dade, Lawrence	24 min
Dec 25, 9:37 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry, McDonald, Newton	23 min
Dec 25, 9:58 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barry, McDonald, Newton	32 min
Dec 25, 10:29 PM CST	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Lawrence	31 min
Dec 26, 12:29 AM CST	Special Weather Statement	SGF	Texas, Wright	31 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Kansas, 2016 Every special weather statement in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.