Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1227 AM CDT FRI JUN 17 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

We continue to track a cluster of strong convection associated
with the circulation of a remnant MCV. Convection was pinwheeling
around this feature as it tracked slowly to the southeast across
south central Missouri. Expect the convection to persist in
association with this feature into the overnight hours. This
activity will produce torrential rainfall rates which could lead
to localized flash flooding. Cannot rule out localized strong
winds up to 50 mph and small hail but the risk for severe storms
appears to be limited. However frequent lightning will accompany
these storms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

It is another hot and humid day across southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks. MCV over east central Kansas this morning is
slowly moving to the east into western and central Missouri. An
outflow boundary from the storms associated with the MCV had
pushed into western and central Missouri and isolated
showers/storms were beginning to ignite along this boundary,
although having difficulty maintaining updraft strength, likely
due to drier air aloft. RAP does show some increase in mid level
moisture late this afternoon so still may see some stronger storms
develop. Forecast is actually quite challenging with regards
convection tonight and Friday, and then its impact on temperatures
and the need for heat advisories on Friday.

Short term models are advertising a weak frontal boundary across the
eastern Ozarks tonight through Friday and perhaps getting as far
east as highway 65 later Friday. Weak convergence along the
front along with the MCV and outflow boundary will likely
maintain an isolated thunderstorm threat through the overnight
hours. With increasing instabilities Friday and 0-3km theta e
differentials 40- 45K, could once again see stronger thunderstorms
in the afternoon with the potential for some damaging wind gusts
and to a lesser extent large hail. However, these will be isolated
to scattered in nature at best. Position of front, convection and
cloud cover will play a major part in afternoon heat index values,
with lower values expected across the east and advisory levels
across southeast Kansas and western and southern Missouri.
Confidence is high enough to extend the heat advisory through
Friday over southeast Kansas and portions of western and southern
Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Jun 16 2016

Upper ridge remains firmly in place across much of the mid section
of the country on Saturday, with the forecast area on the eastern
periphery on the ridge. Cannot rule out an isolated storm, but
confidence low enough not include in the forecast. Ridge briefly
re- asserts itself for late in the weekend so will likely see a
dry day Sunday. Although temperatures both Saturday and Sunday
will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s, slightly drier air will
hold index values down into the 90s.

Upper ridge then finally retreats westward putting the forecast area
into northwest flow, which holds through Thursday. This pattern then
becomes favorable for both MCS activity and slightly cooler
temperatures. Timing and development of any of these MCS's cannot be
made until we get closer to formation. So will broad brush low to
mid range probabilities in the gridded database to cover for this
potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Fri Jun 17 2016

On-going convection associated with an MCV occurring north and
east of the TAF sites. Will include VCSH for KSGF but will
continue to monitor for thunderstorm development. Otherwise...only
effects will be mid and high level clouds primarily at KSGF/KBBG.

Later today...models are wanting to bring a back door cold front
westward into the area. Could see isolated to widely scattered
convection after 18z but confidence is not high enough at this
time to include in TAFs.

&&

.SGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-077-088>090-
     093>095-101>105.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

UPDATE...Foster
SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Gaede

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>